Global Warming and New Energy Sources

On Saturday, Nov. 18, Sterling Allan held a live interview with James Dunn, who is one of the most knowledgeable scientists in the field of new energy.  He is a walking encyclopedia -- and animated at that -- both regarding the array of feasible energy technologies available, as well as regarding geopolitical and economical factors that must be taken into consideration.

As a founder of the Center for Technology Commercialization, he is very active in vetting various energy technologies to help bring the most promising ones to market.

His specialty is Energy Storage and Fuel Cells (he is building a fuel-cell-powered airplane) and is a promoter of the Hydrogen economy, as well as in photovoltaics, though he also has a good understanding of a broad number of other renewable modalities. He is no stranger to, nor is he afraid to discuss in a positive light some of the more exotic technologies such as cold fusion.

Dunn attended the Peak Oil Conference held last month in Boston, which also covered global warming issues.  "We have 10 to 20 years before the climate change 'tipping point'.  CO₂ levels are at 380 ppm, higher than at any point in the last 20 million years."  The methyl hydrates in the oceans and the methane being released from the thawing permafrost create a negative feedback loop, with dire consequences.

The need for alternatives is underscored with some of the third world nations rapidly growing in their use of technology and thus energy.  The U.S., which accounts for 5% of the world's population, consumes 25% of the world's energy and puts out 30% of the world's pollution.

"The U.S. oil reserves peaked in the 1970s and the U.S. is currently peaking Canada and Mexico's reserves."

Here's a real eye-opener.  "Presently, only 1% of the U.S. energy supply comes from renewable sources, including Solar, Wind and Hydro. If we applied the $400 billion dollars that has been spent in the Iraq war toward installing Wind Turbines on non-farmable lands in North and South Dakota, we could power the US, and become independent of imported oil."

Working with a number of US Govt. and DOE labs, Dunn places a positive spin on the proposed hydrogen economy. However, he is nevertheless quit frank about the many challenges to seeing such an economy emerge anytime soon.  "Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy source."  He spoke about the hurdles to be overcome in the generation, storage, and transportation of hydrogen.  Presently, delivered hydrogen costs $16 to $25 per kilogram.  One kilogram of hydrogen is roughly equivalent to a gallon of gasoline in its energy content.

Dunn spoke about a new hydrogen-from-water process involving vanadium trichloride and waste heat that generates hydrogen for under one dollar per kilogram.

Dunn is currently assessing a new low-cost silicon production process that will resolve the present silicon shortage that has been impairing photovoltaic panel production.  The price of solar-grade silicon has risen from $50 per kilogram a few years ago to $200 per kilogram today.  A solar PV company in China is in process of building a plant that will produce 100,000 tons of new silicon a year, which is nearly twice the present silicon production capacity worldwide.  Projected to go online in 2008, this silicon will go primarily to the approximate 100 new solar PV companies in China.  As a result of this new silicon, the price of solar will come down to where it is competitive with conventional energy sources in most places in the world.  Solar presently costs around $5 to $7 per Watt installed.  This new silicon, along with other advances in Solar designs, will drive the price down to around $2 per Watt (installed) within five to ten years.  "The whole photovoltaic world is about to go through a major explosion, which will make solar power competitive with utilities by 2020."

Dunn also spoke about a "free piston engine" being developed by Sandia Labs and Volvo Research Ceter that involves one moving part with a 50% thermal efficiency, compared to the maximum 25% thermal efficiency in a typical internal combustion engine.  The Sandia/Volvo engine involves a piston that fires back and forth using magnets and a coil around the outside to generate 30 to 35 kilowatts of electricity -- more than enough to run a vehicle -- and would cost less than $700 to mass produce, lasting more than 1 million miles.

"When you arrive home in your car, you could hook up your car to run your home (and ten others)."

Another company that has Dunn's attention is EEStor, whose ultracapacitor technology enables an electric car energy storage to be recharged in as few as five minutes, though that would require a million watts input, which is out of the range of what could be available in a person's home.  This would require a stop at a utility substation -- for the fast charge.  A slower charge would still be possible at home.  For between $2,000 and $3,000 an electric car could be fitted with enough energy storage to travel 250-plus miles, and they would only weigh 330 pounds, and they would last for a million miles.  "This would be the Holy Grail of energy storage."

Dunn envisions combining this with Beta-voltaic technology, which is able to produce a constant, albeit low rate of energy from a harmless radioactive source that emits only beta particles, which can be shielded by cardboard.  A car fitted with one of these generators, could have its batteries being charged continually, so that a person would not have to worry about recharging the system except when taking longer trips.  Once every fifteen years, the radioactive fuel would need to be replenished.

Dunn hoped to address what is happening in Russ George's D2Fusion company, which has amassed the best collection of cold fusion scientists in the world.  "They have eighteen working units under test, representing four different approaches."  This was not covered in this interview but will have to wait for a follow-up interview.

Dunn participates in a weekly one-hour radio show each Sunday evening called "This New Car" that explores issues such as these.