Ken Silverstein EnergyBiz Insider Editor-in-Chief

Scientists have the tools to provide some notice when such geomagnetic storms are ready to hit Earth. Utilities and others were in fact forewarned of the 2003 solar storm, which helped to mitigate some of the problems associated with them. Now, however, space weather forecasters have new devices that will allow them to better predict when these disturbances that travel at 1 million miles per hour will arrive.

The $550 million Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) is able to provide 3-D pictures of the sun, enabling scientists to see how the storms actually evolve as they head toward earth. NASA just launched these satellites.

About every 11 years, the sun enters into what is known as a "solar maximum" when the sun expels bursts of material called coronal mass ejections. That risk is now present and will be until 2011. The most susceptible regions are Canada, the Northern U.S. and Scandinavia, although the southern U.S. and coastal regions are also vulnerable.

"There is never really an interval in which there is no threat from geo-magnetically induced currents," says Chris Balch, space scientist with the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado.

Balch cautions utilities against letting their guard down once the peak season has passed. It's analogous to hurricanes hitting later than August or September. In the case of solar flares that are thrust from the sun, one of the strongest storms occurred in 1986. The time to prepare is now, before it's too late, he says.

In 2000 alone, solar storms occurred in April, June and July, with each lasting about four days. During that time, the storms tripped out some filter banks, static VAR compensators, as well as caused some voltage sags in the New York area and a large transformer to be taken out of service in the Pacific Northwest. While relatively benign, it has all affected the equipment running the power system.

The disturbances released by coronal mass ejections typically take 36 to 48 hours to reach earth -- enough warning to make preparations. Furthermore, the SOHO Spacecraft provides real-time observations of the solar wind, which gives NOAA's forecasters the ability to detect imminent geomagnetic storms and to issue more accurate short-term warnings to utilities, between 20 minutes and 50 minutes.

3-D Tools

While adequate, the SOHO spacecraft only provides a two-dimensional look at the coronal mass ejections. In practical terms, it is difficult to know which direction that phenomenon is headed. But with the launching of the twin spacecraft known as STEREO, scientists hope their two-year mission will help them understand more about why these eruptions take place and when they do, where they will be headed and how it then affects Earth.

"Of the bazillion stars that we have in our night sky, the sun is the only one that counts," says NASA scientist Madhulika Guhathakurta, in previously published news reports. "Any understanding or breakthrough we can make in understanding the sun and the sun's environment is of direct relevance to every human being on this planet."

NASA is interested in the solar flares because they are closely related to hazardous radiation from high energy particles that pose a health hazard to astronauts. Understanding them in greater detail will aid significantly on future missions to the moon, and possibly to Mars.

On Earth, the dangers are different. In September 2005, for example, a minor solar flare degraded global positioning systems. Researchers at Cornell University say that that any disruption could last for hours and the subsequent risks would be significant: Commercial airliners and mobile phone distress calls could all be affected.

Sound far fetched? Just ask Hydro Quebec, which in 1989 got zapped. For nine hours on a cold March day, 6 million Canadians went without electricity. The same storm affected several electric utilities across Canada and the U.S., causing tripped transmission lines as well as a blown transformer. If the power grid were to get tripped at one of its interconnections it could cause a series of cascading events along the system.

Precautionary Steps

What can electric utilities do? They must first use computer-generated models to simulate the effects that increased harmful currents would have on their systems. By studying those results, utilities can understand the nuances of their grids and feel more assured about the strategies they will implement.

They must also depend on their engineers to measure the harmful currents on their own transmission lines. If they are present, danger may be lurking. At certain levels, the damage may be irreversible. Otherwise, precautionary measures can be taken, says Palo Alto, California-based Electric Power Research Institute. For starters, transmission operators can reduce power flow through critical transformers, cut the distances that transmissions are flowing and reset protective relays so that they are less sensitive.

"If we had a top 10 storm today, there would be some major problems," adds Balch, space scientist NOAA. "Utilities in major risk areas will want to do some research of the major storms and then see if they have systems that are vulnerable. They need to be sure that they have adequate operating contingencies under these circumstances and may need to explore if there is a better design for them."

Utilities are mostly preoccupied with such threats as hurricanes, ice storms and lightening. As technology improves, utilities will find they can assess their odds of getting hit with geomagnetic storms with much greater assurance, as well as the effect that such harmful currents could have on their transmission systems. Eventually, solar forecasts may be a dependable as terrestrial ones.

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