Nov 15 - McClatchy-Tribune Business News Formerly Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News - Hiroko Kono The Yomiuri Shimbun

Delegates from around the world are discussing how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions after the U.N. climate treaty's Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 at a two-week U.N. conference in Nairobi.

The second meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP/MOP2) was opened in conjunction with the 12th session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention (COP12). At stake is whether the nations can reach an agreement to put on track negotiations on the post-Kyoto framework for greenhouse gas reduction.

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol mandates industrial nations to cut emissions by five percent below the 1990 benchmark level over five years to 2012 and imposes a numerical emissions target on every industrial nation.

Beyond 2012, the world has not come up with a framework to tackle global warming and the Nairobi conference has become the starting point to revise the Kyoto Protocol.

Ahead of the conference, the U.N. climate treaty secretariat called on 166 participating nations that had ratified the protocol to submit suggestions on how to proceed with a revision of the protocol.

The suggestions, submitted by 12 nations, showed a significant gap between industrial nations and developing nations.

The industrial nations, including Japan, Canada and Finland, proposed a comprehensive review of the gas reduction system spelled out by the Kyoto Protocol, while developing nations proposed a more limited review of the system.

China, for example, proposed a review of only the parts concerning industrial nations' emission targets and their support--both technical and financial--to developing nations. It argued that the review process must not result in the imposition of new obligations on developing nations.

The industrial members of the Kyoto Protocol are worried their emissions contribute to only 31 percent of the world's total, while developing nations are emitting more and more greenhouse gases as their economies grow.

From the developing nations' perspective, however, the industrial nations have a responsibility to set an example by reducing their own emissions first, before blaming developing nations.

In fact, while emissions from industrial members of the protocol in total decreased by 15.3 percent in 2004, compared to the 1990 level, the figure for those nations was 11 percent up when economically struggling eastern Europe was excluded from the calculation, according to data released last month by the treaty secretariat.

As for Japan, its emissions increased by 8.1 percent above the 1990 level, according to the preliminary report for 2005.

There is even disagreement among the industrial nations.

The European Union maintains a positive stance toward setting a deadline on negotiations to decide the length of period during which the industrial nations bear an obligation to cut back emissions, starting in 2013.

Maintaining the emissions quota system serves the EU's interest because the EU has already started emission trading, facilitated by the quota system.

Japan is definitely against setting such a deadline.

"We can't make any promise on reducing our emissions beyond 2013, until we find out what the United States is going to do in response to global warming after the presidential election in 2008," a senior Environment Ministry official said.

Japan is trying to avoid confrontation with other industrial members at the Nairobi conference, while aiming to convince developing nations to start a comprehensive review process of the Kyoto Protocol.

Some observers point out changes in developing nations' attitude toward environmental concerns.

When cabinet-level officials from 18 major industrial nations, along with Brazil, China and India, met in Monterrey, Mexico, last month, the developing nations sounded more committed than in the past about achieving sustainable growth while controlling greenhouse gas emissions.

Talks on long-term cuts in emissions are also in progress with all nations involved, based on an accord made in December at the Kyoto Protocol member conference in Montreal.

Nicholas Stern, former World Bank chief economist, warned in his report last month that the cost of inaction on global warming will be as enormous as major wars and great depressions.

Experts in Japan are also pressuring the government to bargain hard on global warming prevention.

Kimiko Hirata, an executive for the non-profit organization Kiko Network, said, "It took more than seven years for the Kyoto Protocol to come into effect. All parties must hurry and come up with an accord, or the international gas reduction scheme itself faces the risk of collapsing."