OPEC raises 2007 world oil demand growth estimate to 1.33 mil b/d

London (Platts)--15Nov2006

OPEC has raised its estimate of the "call" on its own crude next year to
28.15 million b/d, up from a previous figure of 28.08 million b/d, it said in
its latest monthly oil market report Wednesday.
The call for next year is well below the same figure for 2006, which is
now expected to average 28.84 million b/d, OPEC said, up from a previous
estimate of 28.72 million b/d.
OPEC expects world oil demand to rise to 87.13 million b/d next year,
60,000 b/d more than previously estimated on the back of an upwards revision
in expected demand growth in China.
Oil demand next year is now expected to be 1.33 million b/d, or 1.57%,
above this year, the report said.
Chinese demand is on track to reach 7.56 million b/d next year, up from
7.11 million b/d in 2006, OPEC said.
On the supply side, OPEC expects production from non-OPEC countries to
average 53 million b/d in 2007, up from a downwardly-revised figure of 51.16
million b/d for this year.
This would leave non-OPEC output growth of 1.84 million b/d next year,
although OPEC noted a number of downside risks to this scenario in its report.
In particular, the growth forecast for Russian production, expected to
rise by 190,000 b/d to average 9.8 million b/d next year, "may turn out to be
optimistic," OPEC said.
"Essentially, the Russian oil industry is not showing signs of vigorous
growth anywhere and there are no positive catalysts that might give sufficient
support to next year's forecast," it said.
"The portfolios of non-state controlled companies are showing a poor to
deteriorating performance, and state-linked companies are not growing fast
enough."

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