Parched in
Australia Drought alters views on global warming
Nov 8, 2006 - International Herald Tribune
Author(s): Tim Johnston
Australia's long hot summer has barely begun, but the dams are
running dry, crops are stunted from lack of water, and livestock markets
are being overwhelmed by farmers trying to sell sheep and cattle they
cannot feed.
Australia's drought is in its fourth year, and in the vast expanses
of the Australian outback, where farms that can be the size of small
nations mold a hardy breed of farmer, there is desperation. "The crunch
has really come," said Alan McCormack, who farms 3,300 hectares, or
8,100 acres, in the heart of the eastern state of New South Wales, about
250 kilometers, or 150 miles, from Sydney.
"This spring drought has pushed everyone into the same position. They
don't know where they are going to go; they don't know what they are
going to do; they don't know how they are going to get through it."
The drought is affecting Australia's political environment as much as
its agricultural landscape. In recent weeks, the government has
announced 1.1 million Australian dollars, or $850,000, in assistance for
farmers, bringing the total over the past four years to almost 2.3
billion dollars. It is mostly short-term assistance, in part to stave
off farm repossessions by the banks, which many fear could spark a
collapse in land prices.
But the biggest change has been to the government's position on
global warming. Although there is no direct scientific link between the
dry spell and global warming, surveys have repeatedly shown that the
Australian electorate is worried about the climate. The drought has
brought those fears to a head and forced Prime Minister John Howard's
governing coalition to abandon its skeptical position and demonstrate
its concern.
"Certainly, it has taken people beyond the denial phase on climate
change," said Senator Bill Heffernan, a member of the coalition and
until recently a rare campaigner within government for more action on
global warming. "For the first time the cities are focused on their
worries about the future of water supply. Everyone has taken for granted
that you turn the tap on and water comes out. I think they now can see
that that might not necessarily continue to be the case."
In a recent survey by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute for
International Policy, Australians ranked global warming third among
critical threats to the country's future, beaten only by international
terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Sixty-eight percent of the survey's
respondents agreed with the statement that immediate steps should be
taken to tackle the problem even if doing so involve significant cost.
The concerns are well-founded. The latest report from the Australian
Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics paints a dire picture for
the country's agricultural sector. More than half the country's farmland
is now officially classified as drought- stricken, and the bureau says
that production of the three main resource crops wheat, barley and
canola will be cut by more than 60 percent this year.
The bureau also expects the drought to cut growth in the country's
gross domestic product by 0.7 percentage point this year.
The Australian government has come under considerable pressure both
at home and abroad for its refusal to sign the Kyoto agreement on
limiting greenhouse-gas emissions. But until recently it has resisted,
saying that because the agreement does not include either China or
India, it would achieve little. Australia is also one of the world's
largest users and exporters of fossil fuels, particularly coal, and the
government feared that cutting emissions would be costly to the economy.
Australia did sign up to the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean
Development and Climate, which promises to search for technological
solutions to the challenge of cutting greenhouse-gas emissions. Canberra
has accelerated its technology program, recently approving a wind farm
and a 420-million-dollar solar collector, but the government and
Heffernan have hinted that the change in mood might mean that other
measures, such as carbon trading, could be reassessed.
The indirect effects of the Australian drought are being felt
worldwide: Global wheat prices recently hit a 10-year high, fueled by
supply worries sparked by the country's dismal crop forecasts.
In the farming heartland of the western part of New South Wales,
farmers are turning livestock loose on their stunted fields of wheat and
barley.
Stock-sale yards in rural towns like Wagga Wagga are seeing record
numbers of sheep and cattle passing through their pens as farmers
offload stock at fire-sale prices rather than have them die in barren
pastures. Prices for sheep are down by as much as 80 percent in some
areas, and cattle by 40 percent.
"The main crops have failed. They're not even good enough to make hay
or silage," Steve Ridley, an agent with Elders, one of Australia's
biggest rural services suppliers, said at his office in the rural town
of Goulburn, where drought restrictions are so severe that water usage
is limited to just 150 liters, or 40 gallons, per resident per day.
Around Goulburn, where normally there would be 71 centimeters, or 28
inches, of rain, there has been only 35 centimeters so far this year,
and regions of western New South Wales have had even less. Ridley said
that many farmers are "hanging on by their fingernails."
McCormack, who runs 12,000 sheep and some 700 cattle on his property,
has taken on an extra 200,000 dollars of debt over the past four years
and expects this year to be even worse. "Our pastures are worn out
because we've had years and years of not having the money to put back
into the property," he said. Last season he managed to take 400,000
dollars' worth of hay from his pastures for winter feed. "This year
we'll get zilch, nothing." He will have to buy in this year's winter
feed, and prices are already rising rapidly.
The effects are also being felt throughout the rural economy. Darryl
Clarkson, a salesman at a car dealership in Goulburn, said that sales
are down 20 percent as farmers put off replacing their utility vehicles
and four-wheel drives.
The government's shifting attitude has given new hope to McCormack,
the farmer. For the past two years he has had approval to build a wind
farm with 31 turbines, but until three weeks ago, power companies were
showing little interest in the project. McCormack says they are now
starting a bidding war to build the turbines. Once built, the wind farm
will provide a steady source of drought- resistant income for McCormack,
but he is one of the lucky ones. Few other people have an appropriate
site, and to date almost no one else has permission to build one.
Other farmers are struggling on as best they can, and some are not
making it. Ridley, of Elders, said suicide rates are climbing rapidly.
In response to the crisis, Elders has offered two hours of free
counseling for its clients, and its Web page on drought resources
provides a selection of emergency hot line contacts for those in need.
On Friday, the rural town of Crookwell organized a "Look After Your
Mate" meeting aimed at creating some kind of safety net for rural
communities suffering from the drought. They expected somewhere between
150 and 200 people. More than 500 turned up.
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