Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Nov 06 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 921 (S06W39) produced a long duration C2 flare at 06/1051Z. A C8 flare occurred at 06/1746Z, with an associated Type II radio sweep and tenflare.

SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery indicates an associated CME from the east limb at 06/1854Z. A new CME-producing active region is just starting to rotate onto the east limb as seen on EIT/SXI imagery.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 07-08 November. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 9 November as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 06 Nov 084

Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 085/090/090

90 Day Mean 06 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 003/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/005-005/005-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/30

Minor storm 05/05/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/45

Minor storm 10/10/25

Major-severe storm 05/05/10