Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 923 (S05E07) produced a
C3 flare at 12/2155Z and a C1 flare at 13/0642Z. Much of the new flux that emerged in the trailing portion of this region has now decayed. A sunspot group rotated into view on the southeast limb and was numbered today as Region 924 (S07E59). New sunspots emerged southwest of this active region, which appear to be a separate sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 923.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 500 km/s to 410 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 14 and 15 November. A recurrent high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 16 November and produce unsettled to active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 095
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-005/005-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Nov 14 0500 UTC
Station: GOES12
Observed Yesterday: Yes
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 13400 pfu
Solar Weather Alerts
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