Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Nov 16 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 923 (S05W33) exhibits emergence of new flux just to the NE of its large penumbra.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Regions 923 (S05W33) and 924 (S08E16) continue to have the potential for isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet with one period of minor storming associated with a period of southward Bz.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to unsettled due to a recurrent high speed stream. An occasional active period is possible.

III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 16 Nov 094

Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 095/095/095

90 Day Mean 16 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 005/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 010/015-010/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/30/25

Minor storm 15/15/10

Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/35/30

Minor storm 20/20/15

Major-severe storm 10/10/05