Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Nov 21 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A CME was observed in LASCO imagery at 21/0554 UTC from behind the east limb. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 22 November. On 23 and 24 November, active to minor storm periods are possible, as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 21 Nov 078

Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 070/070/075

90 Day Mean 21 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 001/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 001/002

Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 003/005-008/010-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/30

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/35/30

Minor storm 05/15/30

Major-severe storm 01/05/20

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/