Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Nov 26 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 926 (S08E60) produced several B-class flares during the period.

Analysis indicates that this region has a simple magnetic structure.

No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-class flare from Region 926.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole is responsible for the elevated conditions.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 27 November as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

Class M 05/05/05

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 26 Nov 078

Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 26 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 010/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 008/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 005/005-005/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01