US Weather Commentary

Northeast:

Cool October pattern is beginning to show first small kinks in the armor as New York City metro-area approaches 70°F on Halloween. But stubborn trough will still sustain below-normal weekly themes (including a chilly upcoming weekend) until Indian Summer event reaches Atlantic States later next week.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

Like their northern counterparts, rather cool & dry weather will predominate from late this week through next, until the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] fully neutralizes. This upcoming weekend could feature the first freezing temperatures of the Season that reach as far South as the Gulf Coast States.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

In the short-term, cities around the Great Lakes will experience a series of both daytime and overnight temperatures which will run a good 10 degrees below normal. This should also help trigger another multi-Lake Lake-Effect Snow/Ice-Pellet episode. Without a snow-pack in place this early in the Season, temperatures across the upper-Mid-West and High Plains should rebound substantially as high pressure and some southerly flow takes over for the first full week of November.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

Cloud-cover and precipitation will be the main culprits behind cooler temperatures for the next several days until sunnier and drier weather resumes next week. Still too early for Polar Air masses to hit too hard and without much direction from a neutralizing NAO, near-Seasonable weather appears to be the theme for the medium-term as well.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

The most blatant signs pre-December of real polar (and even arctic) air will continue to focus their appearances across the States of the Northern Rockies where sub-freezing highs and near-zero lows are probable. Pacific Northwest locations should take whatever precipitation they can get in October & November, because the spigot will be turned off once the Winter Season gets going. For northern climates, clouds and precipitation actually act as a night-time insulator during the Autumn and Winter months, so low temperatures will be elevated as a result.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation; Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

The last bastions of consistent 80°F+ temperatures in November will be found in the Nation's southwestern deserts. These areas should enjoy the sunshine and even downright balmy weather, before the cooler, cloudier and wetter patterns of the Winter take shape.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation (potential 'Pineapple Express' flooding). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Re-included from previous discussions for pertinence:

As mentioned last month, October typically heralds the transition from no-demand weather to heating-demand weather, and this became quickly & dramatically realized with some of the Wintery events discussed in the re-included commentary below. Ice-pack and snow-pack expansion across the Arctic region, Alaska and Greenland is on pace with this date in October 2002. This is the source region, or "nursery" if you will, of Polar air that has been making appearances into the Continental U.S. this October.

However, sometime in early November, (likely commencing around the 1st full week of November), a pleasant/milder "Indian Summer" episode should evolve for the Central U.S. and slowly nudge towards the East. Further support will come as the NAO and PNA both neutralize from their current Negative (Cold) phases. Be prepared that this could psychologically reaffirm the El Niño or "Winter is Over" fear mongering, (even if this episode is relatively brief), just as it did in Autumn 2002.

Thereafter, the next NAO and PNA phase pattern flip should usher in truer Canada-to-Gulf Heating Degree Days. Similar to last November and November 2002, tangible results might come in the form of a series of Low Temperatures in the Teens for Chicago, or 20's for New York, or Below Freezing across the deep South. The timing of this could be Thanksgiving week or the following week, approximately.