US Weather Commentary

Northeast:

Following an unseasonably cool October pattern, most areas showed hints of this eventually breaking, as New York City metro-area reached 70°F twice this week. Negative-phased NAO will not neutralize for a few more days so the region will still sustain below-normal weekly themes (including a chilly upcoming weekend) until a more sustained Indian Summer event reaches Atlantic States later next week. It is this "warm-up" which you've seen us forecasting for 3 weeks to develop in early November, which will psychologically erode the recent chilly weeks, and resurrect the Warm Winter beating drums (as it did in 2002).

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

Like their northern counterparts, rather cool & dry weather will predominate from late this week through next, until the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] fully neutralizes. This upcoming weekend should feature the first freezing temperatures of the Season that reach as far South as the Gulf Coast States. The South's Indian Summer event will not be as numerically dramatic, but nonetheless feature temperatures running generally 4-9° warmer than normal starting a week from now.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

In the short-term, cities around the Great Lakes will experience a series of both daytime and overnight temperatures which will run a good 10 degrees below normal. This should also help trigger another multi-Lake, Lake-Effect Snow/Ice-Pellet episode. Without a snow-pack in place this early in the Season, temperatures across the upper-Mid-West and Northern Plains should rebound substantially (such as 60's for Chicago and Milwaukee) as high pressure and some southerly flow takes over for the first full week of November.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

Cloud-cover and precipitation (including some heavy rains) will be the main culprits behind very mild nights and mitigated afternoon readings, from the weekend through next week. Still too early for Polar Air masses to hit too hard, and without much direction from a neutralizing NAO, near-Seasonable weather appears to be the theme for the medium-term as well.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

The most blatant signs (pre-December) of real polar and even arctic air will continue to focus their appearances across the States of the Northern Rockies where sub-freezing highs and near-zero lows have been observed this week. Pacific Northwest locations should take whatever precipitation (coastal rainfall/mountain snowfall) they can get in October & November, because the spigot will eventually be turned off once the Winter Season gets going in December. For northern climates, clouds and precipitation actually act as a night-time insulator during the Autumn and Winter months, so evening temperatures will be elevated as a result; but powerful coastal gale winds are an unfortunate byproduct as well.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation; Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

The last bastions of consistent 80°F+ temperatures in November will be found in the Nation's southwestern desert communities. On the one hand, southern California and the desert Southwest will enjoy the sunshine and even downright balmy weather, but on the other hand, down-sloping & dry winds will enhance forest and wildfire outbreaks. Cooler temperature will arrive as a trough swings through within 6-7 days, but warmer November weather should resume soon thereafter.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation (potential 'Pineapple Express' flooding). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Re-included from previous October discussions for pertinence:

As mentioned last month, October typically heralds the transition from no-demand weather to heating-demand weather, and this became quickly & dramatically realized with some of the Wintery events discussed in the re-included commentary below. Ice-pack and snow-pack expansion across the Arctic region, Alaska and Greenland is on pace with this date in October 2002. This is the source region, or "nursery" if you will, of Polar air that has been making appearances into the Continental U.S. this October.

However, sometime in early November, (likely commencing around the 1st full week of November), a pleasant/milder "Indian Summer" episode should evolve for the Central U.S. and slowly nudge towards the East. Further support will come as the NAO and PNA both neutralize from their current Negative (Cold) phases. Be prepared that this could psychologically reaffirm the El Niño or "Winter is Over" fear mongering, (even if this episode is relatively brief), just as it did in Autumn 2002.

Thereafter, the next NAO and PNA phase pattern flip should usher in truer Canada-to-Gulf Heating Degree Days. Similar to last November and November 2002, tangible results might come in the form of a series of Low Temperatures in the Teens for Chicago, or 20's for New York, or Below Freezing across the deep South. The timing of this could be Thanksgiving week or the following week, approximately.