US Weather Commentary

Northeast:

The Previously negative-phased NAO has fully neutralized and the Eastern States are beginning to enjoy the Indian Summer pattern that the Central States have been basking in. It is this "warm-up" which will psychologically erode the recent chilly weeks, and resurrect the Warm Winter beating drums (as it did in 2002). Any cool down in the medium-term will likely be short-lived or part of a zonal flow, so please await our forecast cue for the real onset of Winter, which is still weeks away.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

A very pleasant stretch of 70°F+ weather will pervade much of the Southeast as far North as Virginia, and the coupling of a neutral PNA pattern with a slightly positive NAO should be enough to squeeze out a few 80°F readings as well for the Gulf Coast States. The deep Southeast continues to dry out at the surface, which will pose a bigger concern for hard freezes upon Winter's onset.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

The Indian Summer episode has put an end to Lake Effect snows for the time being, but ironically could also give the Great Lakes surface waters a final Autumn warm-up for more hefty snows in 2006. With snow-free ground and strong Autumn ridging, FargoND (normally in the upper-30's) should break 60°F in the short-term, with equally impressive mid-70's on tap for Sioux FallsSD. With precipitation still at a minimum, any clear skies & calm winds will quickly usher in sub-freezing overnight temperatures, but the next round of intense Polar air remains weeks away.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

One could think it's Summer outside with temperatures briefly flirting with 90°F across Texas this week, but frontal passages will quickly return these States to drier weather and temperatures more in-line with their Southeastern Counterparts.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: < http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

As has been customary this decade, the Pacific Northwest is getting their wet Season headlines mostly pre-December, but with almost all of the precipitation (some of it record-setting) in the form of rain, and not the essential snows needed for Spring stream flow. For northern climates, clouds & precipitation generally act as a night-time insulator during the Autumn and Winter months, so evening temperatures will be elevated as a result; but powerful coastal gale winds are an unfortunate byproduct as well all the way up the coast to Alaska.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation (December-March); Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

The probable final 90°F readings of 2006 will be enjoyed across the Southwest desert cities, with sunny skies and dry breezes this week. Southern California will still be contending with down-sloping subsidence winds for another 24 hours, which will enhance forest and wildfire outbreaks. Much more Seasonable weather will then settle in across the region.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation (potential 'Pineapple Express' flooding). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Re-included from previous October discussions for pertinence:

As mentioned last month, October typically heralds the transition from no-demand weather to heating-demand weather, and this became quickly & dramatically realized with some of the Wintery events discussed in the re-included commentary below. Ice-pack and snow-pack expansion across the Arctic region, Alaska and Greenland is on pace with this date in October 2002. This is the source region, or "nursery" if you will, of Polar air that has been making appearances into the Continental U.S. this October.

However, sometime in early November, (likely commencing around the 1st full week of November), a pleasant/milder "Indian Summer" episode should evolve for the Central U.S. and slowly nudge towards the East. Further support will come as the NAO and PNA both neutralize from their current Negative (Cold) phases. Be prepared that this could psychologically reaffirm the El Niño or "Winter is Over" fear mongering, (even if this episode is relatively brief), just as it did in Autumn 2002.

Thereafter, the next NAO and PNA phase pattern flip should usher in truer Canada-to-Gulf Heating Degree Days. Similar to last November and November 2002, tangible results might come in the form of a series of Low Temperatures in the Teens for Chicago, or 20's for New York, or Below Freezing across the deep South. The timing of this could be Thanksgiving week or the following week, approximately.