US Weather Commentary

Northeast:

The NAO has fully neutralized, now entering its positive phase, and correspondingly the Eastern States are beginning to enjoy the Indian Summer pattern that the Central States have been basking in.  It is this "warm-up" which will psychologically erode the previous chilly weeks, and resurrect the Warm Winter beating drums (as it did in 2002).  Any cool down in the medium-term will likely be short-lived or part of a zonal flow, so please await our forecast cue for the real onset of Winter, which is still weeks away.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

A very pleasant stretch of 70°F - 80°F weather is now pervading much of the Southeast as far North as Virginia, and the coupling of a neutral PNA pattern with a slightly positive NAO should be enough to squeeze out a few 80°F+ readings for the Gulf Coast States through next week as well.  The deep Southeast (mostly Florida and nearby) continues to dry out at the surface, which will pose a bigger concern for hard freezes upon Winter's onset.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

The Indian Summer episode has put an end to Lake Effect snows for the time being, but ironically could also give the Great Lakes surface waters a final Autumn warm-up for more hefty snows in 2006.  With snow-free ground and strong Autumn ridging, the mercury easily eclipsed 80°F as far north as South Dakota and Minnesota yesterday.  Clear skies & calm winds will quickly usher in sub-freezing overnight temperatures (Scotts Bluff NE hit 79°F yesterday and cooled off to 26°F this morning), but the next round of intense, sustained  Polar air remains weeks away.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

One could think it's Summer outside with temperatures briefly flirting with 90°F across Texas this week, but frontal passages will quickly return these States to drier weather and temperatures more in-line with their Southeastern Counterparts, albeit still warm.  The next Mid-Con frontal passage should produce some flooding rains for the lower and mid Mississippi Valley.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

As has been customary this decade, the Pacific Northwest is getting their wet Season headlines mostly pre-December, but with almost all of the precipitation (some of it record-setting) in the form of rain, and not the essential snows needed for Spring stream flow.  For northern climates, clouds & precipitation generally act as a night-time insulator during the Autumn and Winter months, so evening temperatures will be elevated as a result; but powerful coastal gale winds are an unfortunate byproduct as well, all the way up the coast to Alaska.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation (December-March); Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

Widespread 80°F readings will still be enjoyed across the Southwest desert cities, with sunny skies and dry breezes this week and weekend.  Much more Seasonable weather will then settle in across the region with dry/sunny weather still prevalent.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation (potential 'Pineapple Express' flooding). Site-Specific case-studies: http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html