US Weather Commentary

Northeast:

The region continues to alternate between mild soggy days and fewer mild dry days.  For 6 months now, soil moisture levels have been at 90th percentile or higher for the entire Northeast quadrant of the Nation.  Already through 11/13, New York City is almost within 2 inches of cracking the top-10 all-time annual rainfall totals.  Any cool downs in the medium-term will likely be short-lived or part of a zonal flow, so please await our forecast cue for the real onset of Winter, which is still a bit away.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess Snow & Ice Storms. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southeast:

Most of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States have also experienced this mild/moist pattern, but the weather will dry out significantly by this weekend and through the Thanksgiving week.  The deep Southeast (mostly Florida and nearby) continues to dry out at the surface, which will pose a bigger concern for hard freezes upon Winter's onset.  Still reliant on sunshine to reach seasonable temperatures, the Tennessee Valley region has been one of the fewer cooler areas amidst an otherwise mild November, but numerous 60°F readings during the remainder of the month will erase those departures.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

North-Central:

Very mild weather this month has been occasionally interspersed by a frontal passages (along with some cold rain showers or wet snow), but the strong Indian Summer regime will continue into the foreseeable future.  For the northern-tier States even "seasonable weather" can be quite wintry this time of year, but until the WP and EP tele-connections flip to their negative phase, an anomalously mild November remains in place.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Above-Normal Heating Degree Days and Lake-Effect events [East of Mississippi River]; Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; reduced precipitation [West of Mississippi River]. Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com /fcst_discussion.html>

South-Central:

Following some Summer-like temperatures, more seasonable temperatures are being quickly ushered in this week, but the longer-term outlook is still warm/mild.  Synoptic Lows and frontal passages will continue to produce some flooding rains for the lower and mid Mississippi Valley.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Seasonable Heating Degree Days; excess clouds, precipitation; anomalous hard-freeze events (late 2006). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Northwest:

Only 2 weeks into the month, Seattle has already registered one of its wettest Novembers in history, but for those with Spring hydro-electric and stream-flow concerns, this might be too much too soon.  Additionally, the majority of the precipitation has been in the form of rainfall (due to the unseasonably mild temperatures).  For northern climates, clouds & precipitation generally act as a night-time insulator during the Autumn and Winter months, so evening temperatures will be elevated as a result.  Beach erosion and coastal gales remain a serious concern in the short-term, but the frequency and intensity of these storms should gradually wane as we run through the final 2 weeks of November.

Our Winter Season Forecast (made in July): Below-Normal Heating Degree Days; Below-Normal Precipitation (December-March); Localized cold snaps (particularly pre-December). Site-Specific case-studies: <http://www.weather2000.com/fcst_discussion.html>

Southwest:

Sunny, dry weather will help push temperatures this week up to 80°F as far West as Riverside and up to 70°F as far North as Fresno.  However, some of the troughs and fronts that are bombarding the Northwest will yield some crisper (or seasonable for the desert communities) weather during Thanksgiving week.