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PARIS, France, November 15, 2006 (Refocus
Weekly)
The wind energy industry would install an
additional 88,000 MW of onshore turbines by 2030 if world
governments adopt policies which support renewable energies and
lower GHG emissions.
There would be an additional 21,000 MW of offshore turbines and
50,000 MW of solar PV compared with a business-as-usual scenario,
the International Energy Agency calculates in its ‘World Energy
Outlook 2006.’ Hydro would add an additional 58,000 MW of capacity,
biomass would add 28,000 MW, solar thermal would install 7,000 MW
more, 4,000 MW of tidal / wave, and 2,000 MW of geothermal
generating capacity would be installed compared with the IEA
reference scenario.
Nuclear would install 103,000 MW of additional capacity under the
alternative scenario, while coal would lose 680,000 MW, gas would
drop 409,000 MW and oil would lower its capacity by 42,000 MW under
the greener scenario, for a net global change of 770,000 MW of
generating capacity.
For onshore wind turbines, 58,000 MW would be incremental in
developing countries and 26,000 MW in OECD nations, while offshore
wind would increase 18,000 MW among OECD members and 3,000 MW in
developing countries. Transition economies would add 4,000 MW of
onshore turbines, but no offshore turbines by 2030, the report
notes.
Of the incremental solar PV, 29,000 MW would be in OECD countries
and 21,000 MW in developing nations, while 6,000 and 1,000 MW
(respectively) would be added in solar thermal. OECD nations would
add 3,000 MW of tidal / wave while geothermal would split its
additions, 1,000 MW in OECD countries and an equal amount in
developing countries.
The investment costs for green power technologies in the alternative
policy scenario would lower the cost for onshore wind from $8,000
per kW in 2004 to $6,000 in 2030, while offshore wind would drop
from $1,600 to $1,200, tidal / wave would decline from $3,200 to
$1,500, and solar PV would drop from $5,600 to $2,500 per kW under
the green scenario.
“The energy future we are facing today, based on projections of
current trends, is dirty, insecure and expensive,” says Claude
Mandil of the IEA, and governments must promote renewables and
nuclear under the alternative scenario. “New government policies can
create an alternative energy future which is clean, clever and
competitive.”
The reference scenario shows global primary energy demand increasing
53% by 2030, with 70% in developing countries. Global CO2 emissions
will reach 40,000,000 Mt, an increase of 55% over current levels,
warns the 600-page report.
To meet demand, the world must invest $20,000 billion in energy
supply infrastructure over the next 25 years, but that level can be
“substantially improved” if governments implement policies and
measures to reduce demand by 10% in 2030.
Policies encouraging more efficient production and use of energy
contribute 80% of avoided CO2 emissions by 2030, with the balance
from fuel switching. More efficient use of fuels in transportation
provide 36% of that saving, with 30% from efficient use of
electricity, 13% from efficiency in energy production, 12% from
renewables and the remaining 10% from nuclear reactors.
“Improved efficiency of energy use contributes most to the energy
savings,” it explains. “Increased use of nuclear power and
renewables also help reduce fossil fuel demand and emissions.”
The Paris-based agency reports to 26 developed nations and was
created following the oil crisis in the 1970s.
Green fuels can also make a significant contribution, with an
expectation that biofuels would contribute 4% of road-fuel use in
the reference scenario by 2030 but 7% under the alternative policy
scenario, compared with 1% today. The U.S., European Union and
Brazil remain the leading producers and consumers of biofuels in
both scenarios, but “rising food demand, which competes with
biofuels for existing arable and pasture land, and the need for
subsidy in many parts of the world, will constrain the long-term
potential for biofuels production using current technology.”
“There are additional upfront costs involved (in the alternative
policies) but they are quickly outweighed by savings in fuel
expenditures,” says Mandil.
The World Energy Outlook 2006 was produced by the IEA with input
from many distinguished international experts from government,
industry and academia. The annual Outlook publication has long been
recognised as the leading source of forward-looking global energy
market analysis and has received a number of awards from prestigious
organisations around the world.
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