Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet on 13 October. Expect quiet to active levels on 14-15 October, with isolated minor storm conditions possible on 15 October, due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 074
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 072/070/070
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 005/005-010/010-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/30
Minor storm 05/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/35
Minor storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/10