Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center
and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number
288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at
unsettled to minor storm conditions on 20 and 21 October due to a coronal hole
high speed stream becoming geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 22 October.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006
Oct 16 0500 UTC
Station: GOES12
Observed Yesterday: Yes
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 14100 pfu
Issue Time: 2006 Oct 17 0503 UTC
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Oct
17 0500 UTC
Station: GOES12
Observed Yesterday: Yes
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 25700 pfu
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Oct 20 0500 UTC
Station: GOES12
Observed Yesterday: Yes
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 20700 pfu
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
Solar Weather Alerts
For a review of what the alerts mean go to: