Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 917

(S05W86) continues to decay as it rotates off the west limb. No other spotted regions are visible on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between 25/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 26 and 27 October. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on 28 October. Active to minor storm conditions can be expected with the onset of the coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 25 Oct 075

Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 25 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 003/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 004/005-010/010-018/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/40

Minor storm 01/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/20/45

Minor storm 05/10/20

Major-severe storm 01/05/10

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Oct 26 0500 UTC

Station: GOES12

Observed Yesterday: Yes

Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2870 pfu