Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Oct 30 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 921

(S06E58) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has decreased from approximately 600 km/s to 490 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 30 Oct 076

Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 30 Oct 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 013/021

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 005/005-002/005-002/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 10/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Oct 31 0500 UTC

Station: GOES12

Observed Yesterday: Yes

Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3290 pfu