Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Oct 23 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New region 918

(S04W72) was numbered today. LASCO imagery shows a CME on the East limb, apparently originating from the backside. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Its current speed is approximately 500 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

Class M 10/10/10

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 23 Oct 076

Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 23 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 004/005-004/005-004/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2006 Oct 24 0905 UTC

Station: GOES12

Observed Yesterday: Yes

Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2660 pfu

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Radio Events Observed 23 Oct 2006

A. 245 MHz Bursts

Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration

1202 1202 150 1202 0000