Japan's petroleum demand seen falling 1.5% in fiscal 2007-2008

Tokyo (Platts)--2Apr2007

Japan's petroleum demand is forecast to dip 1.5% on the year to 218.9
million kiloliters (1.4 billion barrels) in the fiscal year ending March 31,
2008, an official at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Monday.
METI also expects demand to decline at an average rate of 1.8% between
fiscal 2006 and 2011.
Among all the refined products, the biggest drop is estimated to come in
fuel oil demand.
Fuel oil demand is estimated to drop by 13.8% on the year to 19.7 million
kl in fiscal 2007-2008 with average annual growth of minus 9.5% expected in
the next five fiscal years.
METI has said Japan's fuel oil demand is expected to drop as both local
utilities and industrial plants make efforts to shift away from fuel oil to
natural gas for economic and environmental reasons.
Fuel oil demand from power utilities will retreat at an average annual
rate of 15% in the next five years as new gas-fired power plants begin
operations, the official said.
Meanwhile, gasoline demand is forecast to fall 0.6% on the year in the
fiscal year ending March 31, 2008, and will drop by an average annual rate
of 1% in the next five years, the METI official said.
The official attributed the drop in gasoline demand to slow growth in the
number of cars and a switch towards more fuel-efficient smaller cars.
The total number of owned cars in Japan is forecast to come in at 6.78
million units in the fiscal year ending in March 2008, up 1.3% from a year
ago, according to the METI forecast. However, the growth rate is expected to
slow to an average 0.7% in the next five years.
Details of fuel demand in fiscal 2006, 2007 and 2011:

fiscal Chg on fiscal Chg on fiscal Ave Annual Growth
2006 year 2007 year 2011 Rate for 5 years
Gasoline 60,577 -1.4% 60,197 -0.6% 57,707 -1.0%
Naphtha 49,405 -0.1% 49,477 0.1% 49,981 0.2%
Jet 5,429 5.5% 5,417 -0.2% 5,509 0.3%
Kerosene 23,880 -15.5% 25,275 5.8% 22,120 -1.5%
Gasoil 36,362 -2.1% 35,875 -1.3% 33,759 -1.5%
Diesel(A-Fuel Oil)23,716 -14.6% 22,905 -3.4% 19,660 -3.7%
Fuel Oil Total 22,880 -15.3% 19,716 -13.8% 13,900 -9.5%
Fuel Oil 9,426 -20.0% 7,261 -23.0% 4,176 -15.0%
(For Power Utility)
Fuel Oil 13,454 -11.6% 12,455 -7.4% 9,724 -6.3%
(For General Industry)
Total 222,250 -5.9% 218,862 -1.5% 202,636 -1.8%
(Volume in 1000 kl)
Source: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry