US Weather Commentary

Yesterday, C.S.U./Dr. Gray issued their first Hurricane Season Forecast of 2007:

                    1950-2000 Average:   CSU Forecast: 

Named Storms               9.6                17                   

Hurricanes                    5.9                 9                           

Intense Hurricanes        2.3                 5

These are the same exact forecast values as they issued in their April 2006 Outlook for the 2006 Season, which ties the highest Tropical Storm/Hurricane/Intense Hurricane totals they have even predicted for a Season. 

This was also their largest increase in predicted numbers from their December issuance to April issuance, in their outlook history. {Their research acknowledges that its current focus is now on Net Tropical Activity [NTA], not storm numbers, so the big spike in predictands is less surprising in light of this fact}.

They give 49% odds of a Major Hurricane making landfall on the "Gulf Coast" (as defined as Florida Panhandle to Brownsville TX), which is a slight increase from their 47% odds given in April 2006, and much above their odds given in April 2005 (41%) and April 2004 (40%).

They give 50% odds of a Major Hurricane making landfall on the "East Coast" (but this includes the entire East & West shorelines of Florida excluding the Panhandle).  These odds are the lowest they have given, contrasted to April 2006 (64%), April 2005 (53%) and April 2004 (52%). 

Conversely, we believe "East Coast" risks in 2007 are as high if not higher than they have been as of the past several Springs, and vigilance across these areas should be heightened despite the lowest April odds yet presented by C.S.U.

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