India's parliament will soon debate the accord
that permits the United States to sell nuclear
technology to fuel that nation's growing energy
appetite. It's a hot debate not only in the West but
also in Central Asia where detractors worry about an
expanded nuclear role for India at a time when it is
trying to build questionable energy ties.
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Ken Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief |
India's economy is expanding at 8 percent a year
while its energy needs are growing proportionately.
That will necessitate the development of a modern
grid and efficiency technologies along with
diversified fuel options. It's urgent. Already,
power shortages and blackouts plague the country's
major cities. The situation is exacerbated by the
fact that India's political and economic framework
belies risk takers.
In a speech in parliament, India's Power Minister
Sushil Kumar said that the energy requirement for
2007 and 2008 was 240,834 million units. But, he
said that energy availability was shy of that
requirement, at 221,865 million units. The matter is
further compounded because its burgeoning economy
demands more and more power to fuel it. Right now it
is the world's sixth largest energy consumer,
although it is expected to become the third biggest
by 2030.
In July 2005, President Bush and Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh signed a pact that lifts a 30-year
moratorium on nuclear trade with India. In return,
the United States would insist on allowing
independent monitors to oversee India's use of the
technology, which would likely be purchased from
western conglomerates such as AREVA and General
Electric.
Nevertheless, critics say that India, which has
had nuclear weapons since 1974, never signed the
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. They are
furthermore worried about alliances it is forming
with such countries as Iran and Syria for the
purposes of building its energy supplies. India's
extreme leftists, meanwhile, are also against the
pact because they say it would give westerners undue
say in India's internal affairs. Their coalition
with the current prime minister is now in jeopardy.
But India needs to escape from its dependence on
oil and coal. The demand for those commodities not
only perpetuates price instability, but also
endangers the air quality. "The nuclear deal
probably will lead India to emit substantially
less," says David Victor, adjunct fellow for the
Council of Foreign Relations, in congressional
testimony.
International Forays
If India is to meet its escalating need for
energy, it is imperative that it attract private
capital. KPMG, a worldwide consulting group, says
that the energy sector there needs $120 billion to
$150 billion over the next five years. The nation
does not just need fuel diversity. It must have a
modern transport infrastructure that includes
pipelines and transmission lines.
To be sure, the public sector is firmly
entrenched. And, ongoing efforts since the 1990s to
privatize aspects of the energy sector have been
spotty. The government currently owns about 90
percent of the coal markets there. And, it still
subsidizes electricity prices. Investors,
understandably, have reservations and that's why
reformists in India say that the nation's priorities
ought to be more on internal reforms and less on
external acquisitions.
Indeed, many of India's policymakers realize that
foreign investment can help modernize the nation.
It's about creating a sustainable energy future as
well as building a fresh infrastructure that can
avert the repeated blackouts that many areas now
endure. It all fits into the school of thought that
advocates more use of internal nuclear energy
supplies and the subsequent ratification of the
Indo-U.S. pact now being debated.
"The government is making efforts to broaden the
supply base both internally and externally," says
Arvind Mahajan, national industry director for
infrastructure and government at KPMG in India. "It
is intended to diversify the fuel basket by
increasing shares of natural gas, hydro and even
nuclear energy."
Since 2000, one of India's state-owned oil and
gas companies has invested about $3.5 billion in
several gas projects in such nations as Vietnam,
Algeria, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Venezuela and Libya.
Private oil firms, meanwhile, are taking bets in
Yemen and Iran as well as a handful of African and
South American nations.
But the international forays are a doubled-edged
sword. India is to be commended for trying to expand
its energy options. But the attempts to forge
relations with nations that the United States and
other western interests are trying to alienate may
backfire. That's particularly true now, when India's
top leader is trying to enhance nuclear energy's
profile within that nation.
Prime Minister Singh emphasizes that he is
committed to the peaceful use of nuclear energy as a
long-term power source. If India wants to maintain
an 8 percent annual growth rate, it will need to
triple its energy supplies. Oil and coal are not
just being tapped out but they are also dirty fuel
sources. Singh is asking the nation's political
factions to support nuclear ties with the United
States and what will inevitably involve Europe, as
its suppliers also try to gain a foothold there. At
present, India has 17 operational state-owned
nuclear energy units that comprise 3 percent of its
energy mix. There are currently 6 more nuclear units
under construction.
"I urge the political parties to appreciate the
vital national interest of pursuing a sound energy
security strategy,'' Singh said at an energy
research institute in the country. "India is on the
move and we must be able to address growing energy
demands. No government can afford to shirk this
responsibility and hope to find favor with the
people."
All sides can make a strong economic case when it
comes to the expansion of energy sources and
international trade ties. The political questions
that surround the specific nuclear alliance,
however, give lots of people pause. In the end,
though, India is desperate to maintain a robust
economic performance. The technologies to allow that
to happen will be forthcoming. But the global
community will demand good faith in return.