While parts of the Middle East are racked with
turmoil, other areas are peaceful and inviting. Private
interests are becoming major suppliers and building new
power-related facilities. Though incremental, the
openness is essential if countries there are to meet
their expected future need for electricity.
|
Ken Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief |
Open borders may seem ironic given the war now taking
place in Iraq and the current hostilities with Iran. But
the majority of Middle Easterners and North Africans
know that outside investment is critical and that their
nations must work to build more attractive economic
models. As a result, those countries have largely
dispensed of the notion that foreign investors are
imperialistic.
GE Energy, for example, has received contracts
totaling more than $1.8 billion to supply 32 gas
turbines and additional equipment for power plant
projects in Kuwait and Qatar. All told, five gigawatts
of capacity will be added to help meet demand. The major
components will be supplied by GE. Construction on one
of the facilities will be done by Spain's Iberdrola.
However, the facilities will still be owned and operated
by the respective governments.
"To support the region's dynamic growth, the Middle
East urgently needs to increase its power and water
capacity," says Joseph Anis, GE Energy's region
executive for the Middle East. He adds that GE already
has a strong presence in the region, noting that Saudi
Arabia has committed to buy gas turbines so that it can
add 6.3 gigawatts of power there at a cost of nearly $2
billion.
Prior to 1970, it was common to have foreign
interests throughout the region. But the host countries
had perceived inequities, giving them additional
incentives to nationalize industries. Now, with the
population of both the Middle East and North Africa
predicted to hit 600 million by 2025, they need to take
action to attract private investment. Some experts say,
however, that any rapid evolution could lead to social
chaos, although all acknowledge that reforms are
necessary.
According to the World Bank, high economic growth in
the area has been accompanied by strong job creation and
declining unemployment in recent years. But for this
performance to be sustainable it needs to be supported
by deeper structural reforms.
Gross domestic product reached 6.3 percent for the
region in 2006. That's up from an average of 3.6 percent
a year during the 1990s, the bank says. This is the
fourth year in a row of robust growth performance,
driven by high oil prices, economic recovery in Europe
and other successful reforms. As a result, many jobs
have been generated, primarily by the private sector.
Indicators reveal that employment grew 4.5 percent
annually in the area from 2000 to 2005.
"Countries in the Middle East and North Africa need
to remove the remaining barriers that hinder the
business environment for the private sector in order to
maintain growth, increase private investment and
generate more jobs," says Daniela Gressani, World Bank
Vice President for that region.
Rich Promises
The area is rich with promise. The International
Energy Agency has said that the Middle East and North
African nations need to install at least 100,000
megawatts of new generation before 2030. That will
necessitate $100 billion of new capital investment.
Obviously, a number of risks are present in the
region, namely the threat of worsening violence. Beyond
that, investors are concerned about the pace of
regulatory reform and whether any changes would have a
meaningful affect on economic conditions. Private
interests must be able to enter the marketplaces without
a lot of bureaucratic wrangling or political risks that
could wreck potential deals. Such progress could
increase capital flows that are essential to the
creation of jobs and prosperity.
Oman and Abu Dhabi are considered by some to be the
regional models. They have laid the fundamentals to open
their power industries to the private sector. This is
based on the transparency of the bidding process for
power generation projects and the commitments of the
governments in each of these countries to establishing a
fair and above board investment climate for power
investors.
Saudi Arabia, too, has said it will move forward with
private participation in its power sector because it can
no longer afford to subsidize power consumption. The
government there has signed a deal with Italian utility
Enel to advance environmentally friendly technologies.
Such projects will include advanced meters that can help
curb consumption as well as the development of green
energy programs such as those in the solar sector.
"This agreement is an important opportunity for Enel
and Italy to strengthen our co-operation with one of the
countries with a key role in the world's energy future,"
says Fulvio Conti, CEO of Enel. "It offers us an
opportunity to apply all of the most advanced
innovations in the generation, transport and
distribution of electricity on a large scale."
A select group of fast-growth economies in the Middle
East is open to international capital. Enlightened
nations realize that state-run enterprises have simply
not produced. But the histories of Latin America and the
former nations of the Soviet Union suggest that reforms
must be reasoned. All-out privatization would disrupt
their societies and jeopardize any opportunity to
achieve open markets.
Ultimately, foreign investment in the region's
electricity markets will be judged by results.
Historically, those outcomes have been poor, largely
because outsiders and government leaders are perceived
to have exploited the continent for their own purposes.
But the real test now is whether the current cadre of
private suitors can produce. If they can, advances both
economically and politically may be forthcoming.