OPEC forecasts
higher global oil demand
By BILL MURRAY Bloomberg News
8/15/2007
OPEC raised
its estimate of world oil demand for this year and next and said concern
about potential weakness in financial markets "clouds" forecasts for oil
consumption and future growth.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased its estimate of fourth-quarter demand this year by 200,000 barrels a day, reflecting, in part, additional demand from Japanese power plants, and upped its 2008 estimate by 100,000 barrels a day, the organization said in a report published Tuesday.
Central banks around the world have added more than $300 billion to bolster their banking systems since Aug. 9 to withstand U.S. losses in the market for subprime housing loans. Oil prices have fallen about 8 percent since reaching a record $78.77 Aug. 1.
"The more bearish economic trend which has materialized in recent weeks could negatively impact demand growth in the second half of the year," OPEC said. "World gross domestic product remains on course this year and next despite financial market turbulence."
The organization, which supplies about 40 percent of the world's oil, expects world demand to rise 1.5 percent this year.
World oil demand will average 87.1 million barrels a day in 2008, a gain
of 1.6 percent over this year's 85.7 million barrels, Vienna-based OPEC
said. The 2007 world demand estimate was raised 100,000 barrels a day from
its previous estimate.
The group lowered its estimate of 2007 oil supply from outside OPEC by 85,000 barrels a day to 50.3 million barrels a day because of lower production from Norway, Mexico and Chad. Output from non-OPEC producers will increase by 880,000 barrels a day this year, OPEC said.
U.S. supplies of crude oil "appear sufficient to meet forecast demand levels" the OPEC report said. A potential economic slowdown in the U.S. may be countered by continued growth in other parts of the world, it said.
The projected demand for OPEC crude rises to 31.3 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter and will average 31 million for all of 2007. Both forecasts were 200,000 barrels a day higher than those in its previous monthly report. Demand for OPEC crude next year will average 30.8 million.
Global demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year from 84.4 million barrels a day last year, the report said.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased its estimate of fourth-quarter demand this year by 200,000 barrels a day, reflecting, in part, additional demand from Japanese power plants, and upped its 2008 estimate by 100,000 barrels a day, the organization said in a report published Tuesday.
Central banks around the world have added more than $300 billion to bolster their banking systems since Aug. 9 to withstand U.S. losses in the market for subprime housing loans. Oil prices have fallen about 8 percent since reaching a record $78.77 Aug. 1.
"The more bearish economic trend which has materialized in recent weeks could negatively impact demand growth in the second half of the year," OPEC said. "World gross domestic product remains on course this year and next despite financial market turbulence."
The organization, which supplies about 40 percent of the world's oil, expects world demand to rise 1.5 percent this year.
The group lowered its estimate of 2007 oil supply from outside OPEC by 85,000 barrels a day to 50.3 million barrels a day because of lower production from Norway, Mexico and Chad. Output from non-OPEC producers will increase by 880,000 barrels a day this year, OPEC said.
U.S. supplies of crude oil "appear sufficient to meet forecast demand levels" the OPEC report said. A potential economic slowdown in the U.S. may be countered by continued growth in other parts of the world, it said.
The projected demand for OPEC crude rises to 31.3 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter and will average 31 million for all of 2007. Both forecasts were 200,000 barrels a day higher than those in its previous monthly report. Demand for OPEC crude next year will average 30.8 million.
Global demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year from 84.4 million barrels a day last year, the report said.
Copyright © , World Publishing Co. All rights reserved. To subscribe or visit go to: http://www.tulsaworld.com