IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Two C-class flares were
produced by Region 966 (S06E34), a C1/Sf at 0913Z and a C1/Sf at
1537Z. The event at 0913Z was accompanied by a type II radio sweep.
Region 966 has shown modest growth during the past 24 hours and is
now a small, D-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
through 06/1500Z. Since then activity has increased to unsettled to
active levels. The increase is being driven by the onset of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole, as evidenced by steadily rising
solar wind speeds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
periods at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (07 August) as the
current disturbance continues. Conditions should decline to mostly
unsettled by the 2nd day (08 August) and should be predominantly
quiet by day 3 (09 August).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 070
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 015/020-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/20/10
Minor storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 15/10/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales