IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next two days (15 - 16 August) as a coronal hole rotates into a
geoeffective position. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 17
August.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 069
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 008/008-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales