IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. There was no
activity of note in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Enhanced
solar wind flow from a coronal hole produced occasional unsettled
periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes. A coronal hole currently near disk center will
rotate into geoeffective position on 19 August and produce
occasional unsettled to active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 067
Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 065/065/065
90 Day Mean 16 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales