Tokyo (Platts)--19Dec2007
Benchmark light sweet crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange
could hit as much as $120-130/barrel in 2008 if there are supply disruptions
from major exporters such as Iran and Iraq, a senior Japanese energy industry
analyst said Wednesday.
"We might witness crude prices going up to $120-130/b next year if there
are actual supply disruptions from countries such as Iran or Iraq," Ken
Koyama, director of strategy and industry research at the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan, told reporters in Tokyo.
This is part Koyama's high-end price forecast for average NYMEX crude
futures in 2008 of $90-95/b, which is based on a scenario that includes
lower-than-expected production increases from non-OPEC producers, worsening
supply concerns and increased speculative funds in the oil market. There is a
25% probability of this scenario, he said.
Koyama's mid-range forecast, with a 50% probability, is for NYMEX crude
prices of plus or minus $2/b to $80/b. This is based on global oil demand
growing 1.4 million b/d from a year ago; non-OPEC producers' output increasing
900,000 b/d; and no significant increase in speculative funds in futures
markets.
"With this presumption, oil demand for OPEC producers will be increased
by some 300,000 b/d from a year ago so that OPEC will need timely production
increases to balance supply and demand situations," Koyama said.
Koyama's low-range forecast, with 25% probability, is for NYMEX crude
prices of around $60-65/b or lower, based on global economic growth stagnating
and sluggish oil demand.
Japan imports nearly 4.3 million b/d of crude oil and is the world's
third-largest importer after the US and China. Crude imports from the Middle
East account for roughly 90% of Japan's total imports.
The IEEJ is an affiliate of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.
NYMEX February crude futures were trading around $90/b Wednesday.
--Takeo Kumagai, takeo_kumagai@platts.com
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