Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2007 Dec 03 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z

to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 977 (S06E40) has

developed slightly and is now classified as a Cso spot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low through the forecast period (04 -06 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron

flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is

expected to be quiet through the forecast period (04 - 06 December).

III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 03 Dec 073

Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 070/070/070

90 Day Mean 03 Dec 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 002/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/05/05

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01