IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 978 (S08W25) produced a
C4.5/1f event at 13/1003Z. This region has exhibited growth in
white light area coverage and developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 978 remains capable of producing C-class flares
with a slight chance for an isolated low level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for 14-15 December. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 16 December.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 094
Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 13 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales