Dec 15 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Chris Woodka The Pueblo Chieftain, Colo.

A report by a foundation studying state energy issues concludes there will be a need for more traditional power plants, even as the state shifts toward more alternative energy projects.

"We think there's a danger in taking any resource off the table," said Bruce Smith, executive director of the Colorado Energy Forum and former director of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. "I think the study suggests maybe there is a role for the government to pursue clean-coal technologies. We have more than a 100-year supply of coal in this country and we should use it."

The Energy Forum's seven-member board is a mix of officials from the state's largest electricity providers and private citizens. Crowley County Commissioner Matt Heimerich is the only member from Southern Colorado.

Other members include Mac McLennan, Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association; Roy Palmer, Xcel Energy; Gary Stone, Aquila; Skip Palmer, Energy Outreach Colorado; Dave Lock, Colorado Association of Utilities; and Paul Fillon, Vail Resorts.

The forum released its report on the state's ability to attain renewable energy standards in November, following passage of HB1281 this year by the state Legislature. The report builds on the forum's September 2006 report that detailed the electric power generation and transmission needs of the state through 2025. HB1281 requires investor-owned utilities to shift to 20 percent renewable energy sources by 2020, while rural electric cooperatives and municipal utilities serving more than 40,000 customers must reach 10 percent.

While there are some small hydroelectric generation projects in Colorado, the bulk of renewable energy is provided by wind turbines. Under the law, solar electric is required to meet at least 4 percent of the renewable energy for investor-owned utilities.

"The problem is, the wind doesn't blow all the time and the sun doesn't shine all the time," said Gary Schmitz, chief economist for the Energy Forum. "The purpose of the study was to look at how many of these will we have to build to get that amount of energy."

The answer is somewhere between 1,700 and 2,000 more wind turbines that produce between 1.5 and 2 megawatts each, or roughly five times current numbers. Solar capacity would have to increase about sixfold from current levels.

Power providers say they can reach those levels without much economic disruption, although requiring larger amounts of renewable energy would begin to strain financial resources, Smith said.

In the report, Schmitz breaks down the capacity to generate power and the actual energy produced. He explained capacity represents the potential to produce electricity over a system, while the actual energy produced depends on actual conditions at the time power is needed -- if the wind is blowing, or the sun is shining.

Turns out that on the hottest summer days, when the sun is beating down and people are cranking up their air conditioning, the wind is least likely to be blowing. While solar energy is obviously more available precisely at this peak time, there are far fewer solar projects likely to be built.

Unlike other resources, there is no way to stockpile electricity for the times when you most need it.

Wind power would be available only 7-30 percent of the time, while solar power is available 51-66 percent of the time, Schmitz said.

The relatively low reliability -- coal and natural gas have 100 percent availability -- means that even though 12.4 percent of the state's total capacity for projected power needs in 2025 will be met by renewable resources, only a fraction of that -- about 10-30 percent -- will actually be used.

"That's only an estimate," Schmitz said. "When more are out there, we will be keeping better track and the numbers will be more precise."

There are hidden costs to conversion to more wind and solar power as well.

"We shouldn't breathe a sigh of relief because we've passed this legislation," Smith said. "We need to go forward with all options on the table."

That includes coal.

Natural gas, which is more expensive than coal and emits fewer pollutants, is most often used to back up wind and solar projects during their down times. Natural gas plants can be fired up more quickly than coal plants to meet spot power demands as well, Schmitz said.

Typically, the price of natural gas has fallen in summer months, allowing utilities to buy it cheaply and store it. With more year-round demand, the price would increase.

Additionally, Colorado would have to pipe more gas in from Mexico and Canada, since its own reserves are not sufficient to meet an increased demand, Smith said.

There are problems with coal, however. Pulverized coal, used in traditional plants, is a leading cause of carbon dioxide, a gas which is believed to contribute to global warming. Tri-State's permit for a coal-fired plant in Kansas was rejected by the state recently on that very basis. Tri-State still has plans to build a coal power plant near Holly.

Utilities are not ready yet to begin to build large-scale coal gasification plants, so government may need to take a more active role, Smith said.

"Public Service has said they are not in the business of research and development," Smith said. The company, held by Xcel, recently announced it had decided against building a coal gasification plant in Bent County.

Utilities also face the prospect of federal carbon taxes for coal plants.

In the Energy Forum's 2006 report, Smith warned the state's economy would suffer if the state does not act to meet future energy needs. The forum does not recommend a specific mix of power resources in either report.

NEW POWER SOURCES

The Colorado Energy Forum looked at the impact of converting state electricity production to more renewable sources over the next 20 years. Wind and solar capacity will account for 12.4 percent of the state's total capacity by 2025, compared with about 4 percent now. The amount of energy actually produced by solar and wind power is expected to be a smaller part of the total, however.

All figures in megawatts.