The top 10 Oil Stories: the results are in

 

The Barrel thanks everyone who contributed their views to the top 10 stories of 2007. We had more than 170 responses, with plenty of comments about what we missed.

The winner was no surprise: Oil soars, reaches close to $100 for WTI. But what was right behind it was instructive in in the way responders reacted to the various choices put before them.

So here's the top 10. Responders were asked to rank the stories 1-10, with 10 points given for a first place vote, 9 for a second, etc. The top 10, along with the point totals and the number of first place votes, was as follows:

1) Oil soars, reaches close to $100 for WTI: 1,159 points, 53 first place votes.
2) Spare capacity dwindles, supply/demand balance tightens; Peak Oil theory gets more attention: 980 pts, 45 1st place
3) Major oil companies report declining production: 842 pts, 25 1st place
4) Venezuela takes over former foreign-operated fields: 543 pts, three 1st place
5) Weakness in demand in developed countries more than offset by strength in developing nations, like China: 516 pts, five 1st place
6) Climate change rapidly moves up the list of the world's concerns; US Senate votes for mandatory GHG emission limits: 433 pts, 11 1st place
7) China begins filling its strategic stockpile: 330 pts, three 1st place
8) OPEC increases production by 500,000 b/d in November, rejects a further increase after that: 278 pts, three 1st place votes.
9) Brazil makes a huge discovery at Tupi: 256 pts, four 1st place
10) Ethanol use soars in the US, but its price plunges: 247 pts, two 1st place votes.

A few observations:

--You could argue that numbers 1 and 2 are essentially the same story: that WTI approached $100 because the supply/demand balance tightened and spare capacity dwindled. But if you're of the school of thought that it came close to $100 because of speculators, or because the US government was putting high-priced crude into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, you aren't going to necessarily cite tight spare capacity as the reason for the market's brush with the century mark for WTI.

--The same thing could be said for number 3, the decline in production by major oil companies. It was a major contributor to the rising price of oil, yet if you're a "it's all speculators" type of person, you won't see it as the cause of the market getting close to $100. It also can be said that the majors' decline is a function of peak oil, which was embedded as part of the spare capacity question. But maybe it's more a function of the closing of investment opportunities in numerous parts of the world, such as Venezuela. Its takeover of foreign-operated fields finished fourth, and I tended to view that question as being a proxy for all the doors being shut or narrowed to outside investment.

--One of the least-noticed stories in 2007, based on the survey, is Tom O'Malley joining the European independent refining company PetroPlus. O'Malley then went on an acquisition binge, buying several refineries. The European refining sector has never had a strong, dynamic company stirring the pot, unlike the US. A string of such companies in the Americas -- including the Caribbean and Canada -- has long kept investment bankers rich and active, and major oil companies on their toes. Besides Valero's Bill Greehey, nobody has had more impact than O'Malley, whether it was at Tosco or later at Premcor. Earlier in his career, as a trader at Phibro, he was one of the group of people, along with Marc Rich, who basically invented oil trading. This is not a man who takes things slow. Look for O'Malley to shake up Europe the way he did the US. (The entry for O'Malley received the second-lowest number of total points).

--The one story with a strong vote total that caught me by surprise was the filling of the Chinese strategic stockpile. Maybe the entry should have been a combination of two events: the US buys more oil for its strategic stockpile, and China buys the first oil for its own. When you add up the quantities that went into the two of them, in a tight market, that marginal demand is not insignificant in holding up the price.

--The strangest 1st place vote went to Husky's acquisition of the Lima, Ohio refinery previously owned by Valero. That story otherwise received an 8th place vote and two 10th place votes; four mentions out of 170 respondents, but one person thought it was the biggest story of 2007. Maybe he clicked the wrong button.

We'll review some of the respondents' comments about the "missed" stories of 2007 in our next posting.