New York (Platts)--11Dec2007
US petroleum consumption will average 20.8 million b/d in 2007, up 0.4%
year-over-year, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short
Term Energy Outlook Tuesday.
A further 1.1% increase of 21 million b/d in US petroleum consumption is
projected by the EIA for 2008.
The 2007 estimate for US petroleum demand represents a downward revision
of 0.1 percentage points from the EIA's November outlook, while the 2008
projection was an increase of 0.1 percentage points.
US gasoline consumption is expected to increase 0.6% in 2007, down from
November's projection of 0.7% and is projected to grow 1% in 2008, unchanged
from the previous month's report.
US gasoline prices are expected to rebound to over $3.40/gal in spring
2008 at the start of driving season. Gasoline prices are projected to average
$3.15/gal for 2008, an upward revision of 13 cents/gal. Heating oil prices are
expected to average $3.11/gal in 2008, an increase of 16 cents/gal from the
November outlook. US diesel prices are expected to average $3.21/gal.
WTI crude is expected to average $72.05/barrel in 2007, an upward
revision of $0.69/b from the previous report, and is projected to average
$85.00/b in 2008, an increase of $5/b from the November outlook.
The EIA predicted that US economic growth would slow to 2.1% in 2007,
down from 2.9% in 2006, and then to 1.8% in 2008. These economic projections
were an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2007 and a downward
revision of 0.1 percentage points in 2008.
US domestic crude production is expected to increase 0.2% in 2007 to 5.1
million b/d and jump 2.3% to 5.2 million b/d in 2008. EIA expects crude output
growth to come from the Atlantic deepwater platform, which started production
in October and the Thunder Horse platform, which is projected to come on
stream in late 2008.
US crude inventories are expected to decline, a trend that has been in
place since May, the EIA said.
US crude stocks are expected by the EIA to end 2007 at 296.2 million
barrels, a downward revision of 4.3 million barrels from the previous month's
report.
US crude stocks are projected to end 2008 at 292.8 million barrels, also
a downward revision from the previous outlook. The EIA's November outlook
projected US crude stocks would finish 2008 at 295.6 million barrels.
--Linda Rafield, linda_rafield@platts.com
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