Cape Town (Platts)--13Jul2007

Africa will be a key source of non-OPEC growth in 2008, as regional
supply increases by 130,000 b/d to 2.71 mil b/d next year, despite Angola's
move into the OPEC fold, the International Energy Agency said Friday in its
latest monthly report.
     Longer-term expansion from new producers such as Equatorial Guinea and
Mauritania now looks to be further off, after the impact of tightening upsteam
operating regime and reservoir problems, respectively. 
     Sudan and Congo have helped push regional supply higher, as output from
other key producers levels off or enters decline, the IEA said.
     In Mauritania, Australia's Woodside last November was hit by
disappointing drilling results and downgraded its reserve estimate for the
offshore Chinguetti field to 53 million barrels from 123 million barrels. 
     BG Group quit Mauritania in January, selling its assets to Kuwait Foreign
Exploration, and the UK's Premier Oil on March 22 said it, too, was pulling
out.
     Equatorial Guinea, sub-Saharan Africa's third largest oil producer, has
seen its oil production increase tenfold since 1996 to around 300,000 b/d. But
if Equatorial Guinea does not make some major oil and gas discoveries during
the next few years, there is a possibility it will follow the fate of Gabon,
which is running out of oil, rather than Angola, which is increasing
production. The state oil company is looking to increase its take in future
oil concessions, although even then Equatorial Guinea's terms will be
comparable with those of other states in the Gulf of Guinea.
     In Sudan, there have been calls for sanctions against the government for
activities in the Darfur region, but the opening of a new export terminal on
the Red Sea has led to a rise in Dar Blend crude output to some 150,000 b/d
and total national production of around 450,000 b/d. Production is expected to
rise to 560,000 b/d in 2008, as Dar Blend increases further and more Nile
Blend supply is pumped from the recently started Thar Jath project.
     Congolese production adds a more modest 30,000 b/d in 2008 to reach
250,000 b/d on higher supplies from the offshore Moho Bilondo field.
     Meanwhile, the IEA said while 550,000 b/d remains offline in Nigeria,
security issues in the Niger Delta could shift effective capacities in either
direction.
     Since January 2006, violence in the Niger Delta, a vast area of swamps
and creeks, has surged. Armed gangs have blown up oil pipelines and kidnapped
more than 200 foreigners, forcing companies to abandon oil fields, pull
workers out of the region or confine them to heavily fortified compounds.
     The perpetrators claim to be fighting for a larger share of the country's
oil wealth for the local residents, but some of them also demand ransoms from
oil firms before hostages are released. 
--Jacinta Moran, jacinta_moran@platts.com