But if US policymakers wait or they only address one issue at the expense of others, the energy picture could get problematic in coming decades, with supplies become increasingly short and prices swelling, even to the point of negatively affecting the US economy.

While many of the report's recommendations were predictable, like opening to development more lands currently off-limits to drilling, others, including a call a consistent, global method of limiting carbon and a boosting of motor vehicle fuel economy, were more surprising coming from a largely oil and gas advisory board.

The carbon piece of the report was particularly noteworthy, since it adds another group -- the oil and gas industry -- to the growing list of companies stepping away from President Bush's do-nothing-mandatory-especially-if-it-may-have-repercussions-for-the-US-economy position on climate change.

Even oil and gas companies--and many have dragged their feet on the issue for a decade or more--agree that setting up a predictable, global system to determine the price of carbon emissions will give them the certainty they need to make future investment decisions.

And oil industry investment will need to be huge to keep up with surging demand from places like China and India, the NPC's report said.

The report found that infrastructure investment alone could top $20 trillion, and that many reports by groups like the Paris-based International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration fail to adequately assess the challenges involved in getting the technology, manpower and money in place to put the pipelines, tankers, oil and gas production facilities and LNG plants and regasification facilities in place to meet shifting market patterns.

"The assumption seems to be that the infrastructure will just show up because it is needed," said Donald Paul, Chevron technology chief, who headed the supply side aspects of the report. Paul noted that the infrastructure section of the report cuts new ground that hasn't been explored in much detail until now.

Another surprise in the report is that the international oil companies have a much more pessimistic view on the amount of oil production that will be available on the market in the next two decades than the world's leading energy forecasting agencies, indicating that the companies see more risks in the years ahead.

A total of 34 companies, including 12 international oil companies, were contacted by the NPC to provide data production estimates for the report, which was requested by US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in October 2005.

Estimates for world production by 2030 range widely, with base-case forecasts by EIA and IEA the top of published forecasts at around 115-to-119 million b/d, and subscribers of the theory of peak oil--like the Association for the Study of Peak Oil--closer to 80 million b/d, the report found.

But IOCs were in the middle, forecasting average production in 2030 at about 105 million b/d. That indicates that the IOCs see more risks in the system, including fears about declining production rates, an inability to get technology and skilled labor, less optimistic views on the rate and timing of investment and the rate at which unconventional fuels come on line.

The American Petroleum Institute largely dismissed the idea EIA and IEA were Pollyanna-ish on production. "You have to remember that these companies are betting shareholder's money" on these projects, so their projections are probably going to be "more conservative" and "more current," API Chief Economist John Felmy told reporters following the release of a National Petroleum Council report on global supply and demand. IOCs regularly update assumptions quarterly, while the broader forecasts tend to be annual, he said.