By Gary Stern, Guest Editor
Public utilities are caught in the vortex of change.
Many want to build new power plants to increase capacity
and yet they face closer scrutiny of their financials
and earnings. Others are looking to acquire another
company or divest themselves of assets. These pressures
converge when public utilities present their quarterly
financial results to meet U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission requirements.
How are intensifying pressures affecting the
quarterly financial presentations of public utilities?
After the Enron fiasco, are utilities revealing bad
news? It appears that utilities are increasingly open,
although some reveal as little as possible.
Over the last five years, Barry Abramson, a senior
utilities' analyst at Gabelli Funds, based in Rye, N.Y.,
has seen utilities' quarterly financial reports become
"longer and loaded with more details than ever before."
Utilities are providing more detailed financial data on
earnings than they have in the past, which he attributes
to the effects of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) regulations. In
fact, utilities are more forthcoming about their
operations, the status of their power plants, and even
how the weather is affecting their businesses.
Meanwhile, the SEC's Fair Disclosure rules are also
contributing to this more open atmosphere. Prior to
their enactment in October 2000, analysts at larger
financial firms or pension funds often had their
questions answered earlier and more fully than analysts
at smaller firms or individual investors. The so-called
Regulation FD says all investors must have equal access
to company news and financials, without any preference,
or companies can face penalties and fines.
At the same time, technology is leveling the playing
field. Cutting-edge utilities now transmit these
earnings calls via teleconferencing and webcasting to
analysts, individual investors and large pension funds
alike, noted Patty Bruner, Scottsdale, AZ, managing
director at Christensen, an investor relations
consulting company.
Different Styles
Nevertheless, some utilities are revealing only the
minimum about earnings and other financial results. Some
utilities just send out press releases with earnings
results. Other companies provide detailed information
that is difficult to decipher.
"For me, bare bones is much worse than an absence of
a conference call," says Justin McCann, analyst with
Standard & Poor's. "Unless the company is particularly
attractive for its earnings per share growth or its
yield, one would be hesitant to recommend it to an
investor." When a utility provides little information on
earnings growth and future plans, analysts don't have
enough data to recommend it. Hence, if investors follow
the analysts' recommendation, utilities that reveal
little are limiting their investor pool and shooting
themselves in the foot.
How to report bad news? "Many utilities are much more
forthcoming," says Gabelli's Abramson. "It seems the one
thing they want to avoid is a big unpleasant surprise
and they would prefer that the market become aware of
something negative at an early stage." Analysts can then
incorporate the "bad news" into their earnings
predictions and valuations, preventing any major
devaluation.
For example, American Electric Power (AEP) in April
2006 suffered an initial setback in legal rulings by the
Texas District Court regarding recouping $1.8 billion in
stranded recovery costs. It chose to bring these issues
out in the open in a press release and at a follow-up
earnings call. "It's important for us to be transparent
about new information and provide timely reporting. Bad
news or good news, we handle them both the same," said
Julie Sloat, vice president of Investor Relations at
AEP, based in Columbus, OH.
Even with utilities that are open to releasing data,
analysts and investors still dig deeper into issues such
as capital expenditures. For example, Abramson noted
that capital-spending programs often trigger many
questions about how much money was spent on construction
in current and subsequent quarters. Analysts invariably
ask how much progress has been made, and when completion
is expected.
Since analysts base their forecasts on growth
projections, they are constantly seeking guidance on
future revenues in the next quarter and beyond.
Consultant Bruner said utility executives are extremely
careful about their future earnings. Most utilities
forecast growth in a range of 5-7 percent for the next
quarter. If they are more aggressive, "they can get
punished for not performing as they communicated." She
also suggested that the stock price will dip if revenue
predictions aren't met.
In presenting their quarterly financials, most
utilities focus on the key drivers of results and
earnings, Bruner said. What is driving the revenue, and
what new forces are operating? Did a hot summer cause
more people to use air conditioning, which spiked
quarterly revenues? Have stock options expensing
affected revenue this quarter? Were there any major news
announcements such as an acquisition or divestiture that
boosted or lowered earnings this quarter?
The effects of SOX and Regulation FD are now
incorporated into how most utilities present earnings at
these quarterly updates, said Becky Johnson, manager of
investor relations at Alliant Energy in Wisconsin. "The
major sea change occurred five years ago. Since that
time, we've become better at becoming transparent and
providing the appropriate level of financial
information. Now it's business as usual."
Essentially, analysts want to learn anything that
will change or affect future earnings and the stock
price that includes any potential positive or negative
news. Some power companies are still nervous about
talking too much. But, many stock pickers say that most
utilities are delivering valuable information.