IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region
963 (S05E15).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE has steadily declined to around 485 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (13-15
July). Isolated active periods are possible on 14-15 July due to a
recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 077
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 005/008-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales