Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity
was observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (17 - 19
July).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 073
Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

For current space weather conditions please refer to:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales