IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 963 (S04W86) is the
only spotted region on the disk and is rotating out of view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with active periods on day 1 (20 July) due
to a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet conditions should return on days
2 and 3 (21-22 July).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 068
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 015/015-008/015-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/10
Minor storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales