IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An asymmetric full halo
CME was observed in LASCO data starting at approximately 30/0454Z.
This CME is believed to be a backsided event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active due to a
geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind speed remains elevated at
approximately 600 km/s at time of issue.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods
for the next two days (31 July - 01 August) due to continued coronal
hole effects. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 02 August.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 069
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 008/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
 

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales