SAN FRANCISCO, California, USA, July 11, 2007.
Renewable energies represent a modest role in most energy scenarios because they are underestimated in most reports, says the Centre for Resource Solutions.
“What energy future we ultimately experience is the result of choices; it is not fate,” says lead author Jan Hamrin in 'Review of the role of renewable energy in global energy scenarios.' “Policy makers, investors and consumers do have choices, and every indication in the headlines today is that their decisions are not tracking to the trends of the past. Energy scenarios can help these decision‑makers evaluate the available options and the potential implications of their choices.”
Researchers compared numerous scenarios for the International Energy Agency and found that different organisations have their own agendas and use different scenarios, ranging from reference scenarios ('business as usual'); intervention scenarios (impacts of a specific policy); and exploratory reference scenarios (influence from changing key drivers). Most intervention scenarios indicate 80% of primary energy will still come from non-renewable energy sources by 2050 and the authors conclude that either present policies are inadequate to meet the challenge of climate change and something “far more bold is required” or analysts do not consider changing market conditions for renewables, including the rate of technological innovation and the stimulus of multiple policy interventions.
“To gauge the credibility of scenario results, it is important to assess the validity of the assumptions inherent in a model’s structure as well as the values of key parameters,” the report continues. “Because third party analysts rarely have the benefit of time and expertise to conduct a multi‑model investigation, this report uses a different approach to survey implicit assumptions apparent in the results, an initial layer of assessment.”
“Having completed that analysis, the authors suggest seven overarching recommendations to modelling teams constructing future global energy scenarios,” it explains. Eleven reports and 35 scenarios were studied from institutions such as the IEA, German Advisory Council on Global Change, Greenpeace and the Pew Center.
The authors provide seven recommendations, covering data transparency, articulation of scenario frame, expanding the range of renewable energy, characterisation of renewable energy technologies, role of efficiency, description of model features and carbon constraints and climate policies. “Observations of incomplete renewable energy technology sets and undisclosed technology assumptions suggest that many scenario studies have yet to explore the full potential for renewable energy.”
“Those scenarios that do feature the most significant contribution from renewable energy technologies draw heavily on energy efficiency improvements as well,” it concludes. “Among the renewable energy sources, biomass was routinely reported to dominate the other options.”
“However, few scenarios include a full range of renewable energy and efficiency options,” it notes. “Exploring the full potential of these options can offer a decision‑maker striving to achieve energy security, sustainable development, and climate stabilisation a broader range of energy opportunities, many of which are available today.”
