US Weather Commentary

Location: New York
Author: Michael Schlacter
Date: Friday, July 13, 2007
 

  • Models & other Outlooks finally catch up with reality in depicting warm Mid-West to Mid-Atlantic for balance of July.....
  • West to back off Heat throttle as Troughs return and early Monsoon moisture on horizon......
  • Still a while to go until Hottest time of the Year.....

Amidst the ups & downs that daily and weekly weather has taken since May across various regions of the Nation, it must be reminded that such variations are exactly what ALL Summers do. Unlike the Winter Season, which can easily rattle off 15-25 consecutive days above or below (modern) normals, our North American atmosphere physically won't permit such uninterrupted consistency except for perhaps in the deepest deserts or the coolest ocean-front localities.

Thus, what separates an average Summer (dozens of cool days), from a very hot Summer (several cool days), has very little to do with common-denominator "cool days" (which our attached forecast tables will always quantitatively depict for you), but more with the frequency and intensity of Heat Waves throughout the Season. More importantly, in the Summer, if locations or regions end up with monthly or seasonally temperature departures of a mere 2-3 °F, they have automatically vaulted themselves into the upper-percentiles of their hottest (or coolest) Summers on record.

Models and other Outlooks have consistently given mixed signals and/or large-error bars even 5-7 days out this year, masking the 2 huge National weather stories going on: (1.) The Mid-West to Mid-Atlantic zone will have one of the Top-10 Hottest Summers on record (and much warmer than 2006), and (2.) The Texas/Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will have one of the most temperate Summers in many years (and drastically cooler & wetter than 2006).

Summer has a long way to go, with dramatic twists and turns undoubtedly to come, and we will help guide you through them along with keeping a steady focus of Summer 2007 Big Picture.

Weather behind the Weather (advisory highlights not being discussed):

  • As we progress through the 2007 Summer Season, Cloud/Storm/Rain/Abated CDD/GDD focus will shift a little Eastward away from Western Texas & Rio Grande Valley and closer to the ARK-LA-TEX & Lower Mississippi Valley regions, but the overall Texas/Southern Plains/South-Central U.S. theme we advised of having the biggest down-turn in Heat compared to 2006, will continue.
  • Severe to Extreme Drought across several Western States will continue to ebb & flow warmth between anomalous heat and record heat, but keep in mind that Rockies & Northwest U.S. remain vulnerable to cool downs this Summer just as quickly as they warm up.
  • Meanwhile, coastal California remains in grasp of powerful 2007 Sea-Breeze/Marine Layer, with Los Angeles AP no warmer than 78°F, on any day at any time, since May 8th.
  • First-Half Summer 2007 versus Second-Half Summer 2007 will bring about big changes for Southwestern U.S., as drought-induced fires, scorching heat and bold sunny skies, will eventually transition to more Monsoon-supplied clouds, flash-flooding and abated critical days.
  • We have been tracking hemispheric oscillations, regional wind sheer and water basin heat content, leading us to conclude that Atlantic Tropical Development could get very active again within the next 10 days.
  • For a few days we have been monitoring Mount Gamkonora in Halmahera Island, Indonesia. This active volcano has the potential to erupt this month, and if it does so with stratospheric penetration, could have implications on some of our future Winter 2008 and Summer 2008 weather predictions even in North America (which we would factor in).

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