What's Moving the Oil Markets?
•Global crude weakened Monday retreating from Friday's
highs as market participants looked to take profit and as concerns over
Nigeria eased with the release of a British girl late Sunday, sources said.
•"News of the release [in Nigeria] has had an effect and there's been a
small retracement on profit taking," said a London-based broker. "People are
thinking that it is a little toppy right now but going forward it is looking
stronger. There is momentum in the market now."
•The strong rise in prompt ICE Brent also led to a shift in the curve's
structure, flipping into backwardation for September/October by 31 cents.
"Prompt ICE Brent is very strong at the moment mainly supported by physical
factors, which is pushing the front-end of the curve higher....if you look
at Cal 08 for example, this is down 70 cents today, so the bullish momentum
is really only at the front," a London-based trader said. "North Sea field
maintenance, combined with healthy refinery demand and lower crude stocks in
Europe than in the US are these physical support factors for ICE Brent, I
think," he added.
•The International Energy Agency said Monday it saw "a significant
improvement in refinery flexibility" alongside increased investment over the
next five years. This should increase the ability of the refining sector to
process OPEC's mainly heavy and sour spare capacity, it said.
•World crude distillation capacity is forecast to rise by 10.6 million b/d
between 2007 and 2012, 9.1 million b/d of which is new capacity with 1.5
million b/d of capacity creep. Some 6.7 million b/d of this expansion will
be in the Middle East and Asia, where regional product demand growth will be
lower than the growth in refining capacity.
Updated: July 9, 2007
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