CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts, USA, July 11, 2007.
The wind power market in the United States will reach a cumulative installed capacity of 49,000 MW by 2015, according to a study by the consulting firm Emerging Energy Research.
Texas, California, New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Washington are at the forefront of wind development, with 125 GW of projects at various stages of development in the U.S. pipeline, explains ‘US Wind Power Markets & Strategies 2007‑2015.’ The 255 page report provides a state-by-state analysis.
“Wind project development activity has quickly responded to the growing demand for renewable energy in the U.S.,” it explains, with US$65 billion to be invested in additional wind capacity between 2007 and 2015. The U.S. will rank first in the world in cumulative installed wind capacity with 19% of global wind market share by the end of 2015.
“With greater certainty in the energy policy fundamentals underpinning U.S. wind growth potential, the U.S. market has become a core demand hub for global wind players across the value chain, with both aggressive foreign wind development players as well as numerous global wind turbine vendors investing significant sums to secure a long‑term US wind market position,” explains Joshua Magee of EER.
The U.S. wind market will reach record levels both this year and next, with 7,650 MW of new wind installations over the two‑year period. Starting in 2009, annual wind additions are expected to decline as the result of transmission bottlenecks but new transmission build‑out after 2011 will allow the U.S. market to move toward a new plateau of growth, with the market expected to reach as much as 5 GW per year by 2015.
By the end of 2015, several key states will have provided the greatest contributions to the overall wind portfolio of the U.S., with Texas accounting for 23% of total growth, and California, Minnesota, New York, Colorado and Washington to account for 30% of total aggregate market growth, according to EER.
Led by Iberdrola and FPL, utilities will continue to dominate the rankings, representing 14 of the top 20 wind owners. Activity among independent power producers is on the rise as these firms consolidate global pipelines, with Acciona Energia, Babcock & Brown, Trinergy and Horizon cited as becoming key players through portfolio and project acquisition.
As the wind market has exploded since 2005 in the U.S., vendor competition in the wind industry has also intensified, with numerous foreign turbine manufacturers making significant investments to build order books with key US customers and to establish a greater manufacturing presence, the report notes. Turbine manufacturing investment has grown markedly in the past two years, with “aggressive new entrants now vying with US market veterans GE and Vestas for big‑name contracts.”
In another report on the wind power market in Europe, growth will be steady over the next eight years, with the continent set to add an average of 9 GW per year through 2015 and to exceed 130 GW by that time. The European wind market will grow from a total installed base of 48,452 MW last year to 130,816 MW by 2015.
Spain will remain Europe's largest growing market through 2015, adding an average of 2,200 MW per year, says EER. Germany will continue to be a high‑growth market, adding 1,000 MW per year with offshore compensating for declining onshore after 2012. Spain and Germany will account for more than 50% of Europe's wind capacity through 2015, but their share will drop as other markets scale up in western Europe and projects flow in eastern European markets, led by Poland and Turkey.
“European utilities are amassing large and geographically diverse pipelines as they penetrate new markets through project or pipeline acquisitions,” explains the report. “With growth opportunities drying up in their consolidating home markets, leading developers are moving to scaling markets where they can amass large pipelines, and growth markets, where they can grab the best sites, to ensure steady sales of projects.”
By 2009, EER says the offshore market will begin to surge, surpassing 1 GW per year, with 170 to 225 MW installed each in Britain, Germany and Sweden. Between 2010 and 2015, the offshore market will add 1,300 MW per year, growing to 10.4 GW by the end of the period, representing 8% of Europe's total wind power installed base.
EER is a consulting firm based in Massachusetts and Barcelona, Spain.
