Montreal  (Platts)--20Jun2007

Global carbon emissions are set to rise from 26 billion mt in 2004 to 40
billion mt by 2030 unless concrete measures to reduce greenhouse gases are
taken, according to the director-designate of the International Energy Agency
Nabuo Tanaka.

     During the same period global energy demand is predicted to increase by
50%, Tanaka added.

     Making his first major speech as the designated successor to IEA
executive director Claude Mandil, whom he will replace in September, Tanaka
told a conference of the International Economic Forum of the Americas in
Montreal Tuesday that energy efficiency strategies would be key to improving
sustainability.

     Tanaka stressed that China's energy consumption was set to outstrip that
of all OECD economies combined between 2015 and 2030, while India's
consumption would double from current levels over the same period.

     "We all can do better," Tanaka said, underlining the need for improved
energy efficiency in transportation, buildings and appliances.

     By 2030, 6 billion mt of emissions could be reduced by improving energy
efficiency by 78%, with the remainder coming from using a cleaner energy mix,
he said.

     By 2050, 32 billion mt of CO2 could be reduced, with carbon capture and
storage accounting for 20% of the reductions, energy efficiency 46% and
cleaner energy the remaining 34%, Tanaka added.

     "The indivisibility of security and sustainability must guide each and
every decision," Tanaka said, quoting a recent IEA ministerial decision.

     To this end, Tanaka stated that other priority areas to address when he
officially becomes Executive Director would be to "strengthen engagement with
producers," pointing to Russia as a particularly case and to strengthen
natural gas markets.

     Short-term issues center around the supply of and dependence on imports
of natural gas, Tanaka said, while longer-term issues center around investment
to ensure continuing natural gas production and supply, he added, highlighting
Russia's importance for long-term gas supplies.

     "The need for action is urgent," Tanaka concluded.