BRUSSELS, Belgium, June 6, 2007.
Average annual cumulative growth in the international wind energy industry will be 19.1% from 2006 until 2010, compared with 24.3% during the 2002-2006 period.
“Temporary supply chain difficulties” will have an impact, says the Global Wind Energy Council, but the industry is “set to continue their spectacular growth”. Last year, total installed capacity increased by 25% around the world, generating Euro 18 billion of new equipment and boosting global wind capacity to 74 GW.
Annual installed capacity will reach 21 GW in 2010, an increase of 38% from the 15.2 GW installed in 2006.
“Despite the strong growth we have witnessed in the past, we estimate that the biggest developments are still ahead,” says Angelika Pullen of GWEC. “Until the end of the current decade, the cumulative capacity of wind energy installations is predicted to reach 149.5 GW, more than double the installed capacity at the end of 2006.”
The European Union remains the leading market in wind energy with 48 GW of capacity, but North America and Asia are developing at a tremendous pace. Europe will continue to be the most important market, but with a smaller share than in the past as the industry becomes more global.
In 2004, Europe represented 72% of the annual market, but dropped to 55% in 2005 and to 51% in 2006. The trend is expected to continue and, in 2010, Europe will hold only 44% of the annual global market of 9.3 GW, but 55% of the world’s total installed capacity of 82 GW.
Delays in the offshore market have pushed large scale offshore development towards the end of the decade but offshore development will give a new momentum to the European market during the next decade. North America is expected to continue to be the second-largest regional market in terms of total installed capacity, with average annual growth of 24.6%. From 9.8 GW installed at the end of 2006, it will reach 31.6 GW by 2010 and the United States will be the most important national market during the period 2007-2010 with a predicted average installation of 3.5 GW per year.
There is an uncertainty with the Production Tax Credit ending next year, “but it seems likely that it will be extended and high level support from an increasing number of state governments assures that the market will continue to grow strongly,” the report explains. “By 2010, the U.S. will be on par with Germany in terms of cumulative installed capacity.”
The Asian market has exceeded all previous estimates due to unexpectedly strong growth in China, and that continent will have the highest average annual growth rate (28.3%) during the period. Total installed capacity will reach 29 GW by 2010, up from 10.7 GW in 2006 and, with predicted installation of 8,000 MW of turbines between 2007 and 2010, India will continue to be the continental leader and the fourth country globally. China will be a close second, with the highest growth rate and a predicted installed capacity also of 8,000 MW during the period.
Last year, there were encouraging developments in Latin America and the Caribbean, with 296 MW of new installation. Until 2010, “the market will take off, starting with Brazil and followed by Mexico. Smaller developments will also take place in some countries of Central America as well as in Argentina and Chile.”
Despite its large potential, Latin America will remain a small market until the end of this decade, “progressing towards significant development in the next decade,” says GWEA. In the Pacific region, wind energy development slowed considerably last year with only 112 MW of new turbines but, “despite some uncertainties regarding the political framework, the development is predicted to continue in Australia with 1,000 GW to be installed in the period 2007-2010.”
Africa remains the continent with the smallest development of wind, although two countries (Egypt and Morocco) have emerged as leaders where development is expected to pick up. Development in North Africa and Middle East will add a total of 900 MW by 2010 for the whole continent.
GWEC members represent 1,500 companies in 60 countries, including all major turbine manufacturers and 99% of the world’s 74,000 MW of installed wind capacity.
