WASHINGTON, DC, US, May 30, 2007.
The share of renewable energies in total world energy consumption will rise from 7% in 2004 to 8% in 2030, much of it from large hydro facilities, predicts a major forecast.
The global consumption of marketed energy will grow 57% in that period, according to the reference case projection from the ‘International Energy Outlook 2007' released by the Energy Information Administration. The annual report shows the most rapid growth in energy demand for nations outside the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development), especially in non-OECD Asia, where strong projected economic growth drives the increase in energy use.
World demand for energy will grow despite the relatively high price for oil and natural gas, although rising prices dampen growth in demand for petroleum and liquids fuels after 2015 and, as a result, their share of overall energy use will drop from 38% in 2004 to 34% in 2030. In contrast, the shares of natural gas, coal and renewables are expected to grow over the period.
The outlook focuses exclusively on marketed energy; non-marketed energy sources will continue to play an important role in some developing countries and include off-grid solar and wind, as well as solar thermal and geothermal heat pumps. The projections are based on U.S. and foreign laws in effect now, and the potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations and standards are not reflected in the projections.
The use of hydroelectricity and other grid-connected renewables will continue to expand over the projection period, increasing by 1.9% per year, which is the same rate as natural gas consumption. Higher fossil fuel prices (particularly for natural gas in the electric power sector) “allow renewable energy sources to compete economically in some areas,” it explains.
“Where they are not economically competitive with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources may be supported by government policies and incentives,” it adds. Much of the growth in renewable energy consumption is projected to come from mid- to large-scale hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD Asia and Central and South America, where several countries have hydropower facilities planned or under construction. Outside of Canada and Turkey, hydropower capacity is not expected to grow substantially in OECD nations because most hydroelectric resources in the region already have been developed or lie far from population centres.
“Most of the increase in OECD renewable energy consumption is expected to be in the form of non-hydroelectric resources, such as wind, solar, geothermal, municipal solid waste, and biomass,” it adds. In the reference case, electricity generation from hydroelectric and other renewables increases at an average annual rate of 1.7%, with high oil and natural gas prices encouraging the use of renewables.
“Like nuclear power, renewable energy sources are attractive for environmental reasons,” and government policies and incentives to increase the use of renewables for electricity encourage the development of renewables “even when it cannot compete economically with fossil fuels,” the report explains. The share of renewables in world electricity generation falls from 19% to 16% over the period, as consumption grows for coal and natural gas in electricity generation and exceeds the growth in renewables.
“The capital costs of new power plants using renewable fuels remain relatively high in comparison with those for plants fired with coal or natural gas,” and the report notes that off-grid / non-marketed / non-commercial renewables “are an important source of energy” with 2.5 billion people depending on biomass as their main fuel.
