Higher Rates May Slow US Housing Recovery

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 6.43 percent with an average 0.4 point, up from last week when it averaged 6.22 percent.  A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.25 percent.  The 15-year FRM has not been higher since the week ending July 6, 2006, when it averaged 6.44 percent.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 6.37 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 6.24 percent.  A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.23 percent.  The 5-year ARM has not been higher since the week ending July 6, 2006, when it averaged 6.39 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.75 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 5.65 percent.  At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.66 percent. The 1-year ARM has not been higher since the week ending July 27, 2006, when it averaged 5.78 percent.

(Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total cost of obtaining the mortgage.)

“Mortgage rates moved sharply upward this week, with rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages jumping more than 20 basis points, the largest upward movement in over three years,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.  “These moves parallel rising yields on Treasury securities, as concerns about inflation pressures and continuing strength of consumer and business spending have dimmed hopes for an interest rate cut.

“Higher mortgage rates may weigh on the housing market's gradual recovery. While demand appears to have stabilized, inventories of new homes remain high, putting downward pressure on construction and home prices.”

Freddie Mac defines its regions as follows:
Northeast:  NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, VA, WV, ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT
Southeast:  NC, SC, TN, KY, GA, AL, FL, MS, PR, VI
North Central:  OH, IN, IL, MI, WI, MN, IA, ND, SD
Southwest:  TX, LA, NM, OK, AR, MO, KS, CO, NE, WY
West:  CA, AZ, NV, OR, WA, UT, ID, MT, HI, AK, GU

DEFINITIONS
Commitment Rate is the interest rate a lender would charge to lend mortgage money to a qualified borrower exclusive of the fees and points required by the lender.  This commitment rate applies only to conventional financing on conforming mortgages with loan-to-value rates of 80 percent or less.
ARM Index –is the One-year Treasury.
Loan to Value Ratio (LTV) is the ratio of the loan amount of a mortgage loan to the lower of the appraisal value or purchase price of the property securing the loan.
Origination Fees and Discount Points are the total charged by the lender at settlement. One point equals one percent of the loan amount.
Margin is a fixed amount added to the underlying index to establish the fully indexed rate for an ARM.
Weighted Averages for the Primary Mortgage Market Survey have been adjusted as of October 26, 2006.  The new weights use the dollar volume of conventional mortgage originations within the 1-unit Freddie Mac loan limit as reported under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) for 2005.  The weights are listed in the table below.

PRIMARY MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEY RESULTS

30-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGES

15-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGES

5/1 ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES (ARMs)

1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATE MORTGAGES (ARMs)

THE NATIONAL MORTGAGE RATE SNAPSHOT

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is for informational purposes only and Freddie Mac is not responsible for business decisions made based on the reported results of the PMMS.  Freddie Mac may change the methodology used to conduct the PMMS survey at any time and without notice.

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